ArticleBMJ open2019
Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Trial of Labor After Cesarean and Vaginal Birth After Cesarean: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Pooled it
- Vaginal birth after cesarean section and its associated factors in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Pooled it
- Predictors of successful vaginal birth after a cesarean section in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2023Pooled it
- Machine learning to predict pregnancy outcomes: a systematic review, synthesizing framework and future research agenda.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2022Pooled it
- Clinical interventions that influence vaginal birth after cesarean delivery rates: Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2019Pooled it
- Predicting the risk of unplanned cesarean delivery at admission to guide labor process management: a retrospective cohort study in Southwest China.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2026Article
- Development and validation of an improved prediction model for vaginal birth after previous cesarean section: a retrospective cohort study of a Chinese population.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Exploring barriers and facilitators of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC), awareness, and preferences among females in Western Saudi Arabia.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2025Article
- Models for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean section: scoping review.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2024Article
- Factors associated with successful vaginal birth after one lower uterine transverse cesarean section delivery.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A Prognostic Study for the Development of Risk Prediction Model for the Success of Vaginal Birth Following a Cesarean Surgery at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2023Article
- Intrapartum ultrasound measurement of the lower uterine segment thickness in parturients with previous scar in labor: a cross-sectional study.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2022Article
- Prediction of odds for emergency cesarean section: A secondary analysis of the CHILD term birth cohort study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Article
- Cesarean delivery on maternal request and its influencing factors in Chongqing, China.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2021Article
- Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth After a Primary Cesarean Section in Women with an Optimal Inter-Delivery Interval.International journal of women's health · 2021Article
- Determinants of Successful Vaginal Birth After Caesarean Section at Public Hospitals in Ambo Town, Oromia Region, Central Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Article
- Acceptance of Vaginal Birth After Caesarean Section Trial in Shree Birendra Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal: A Descriptive Cross-sectional Study.JNMA; journal of the Nepal Medical Association · 2021Article
- Achieving WHO's Goal for Reducing Cesarean Section Rate in a Chinese Hospital.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery in China.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS).
designA retrospective cohort study.
settingTwo secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China.
participantsInclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ≥18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with any of the following were excluded from the study: preterm labour (gestational age <37 weeks), two or more CSs, contradictions for vaginal birth, history of other uterine incision such as myomectomy, and incomplete medical records. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was VBAC, which was retrospectively abstracted from computerised medical records by clinical staff.
resultsOf the women who planned for TOLAC, 84.0% (1686/2006) had VBAC. Gestational age, history of vaginal delivery, estimated birth weight, body mass index, spontaneous onset of labour, cervix Bishop score and rupture of membranes were independently associated with VBAC. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) in the training cohort. The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.79).
conclusionsTOLAC may be a potential strategy for decreasing the CS rate in China. The validated nomogram to predict success of VBAC could be a potential tool for VBAC counselling.
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