Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31129125›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2019

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

Katherine E Sleeman, Maja de Brito, Simon Etkind, Kennedy Nkhoma, Ping Guo, Irene J Higginson, Barbara Gomes, Richard Harding

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 424 papers, 15 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
424citing papers in PubMed, 15 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

424 citing papers in PubMed, 15 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  7. Music therapy for end-of-life care.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025
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  11. Content accuracy and readability of dietary advice available on webpages: A systematic review of the evidence.Journal of human nutrition and dietetics : the official journal of the British Dietetic Association · 2025
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364 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Katherine E SleemanCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK. Electronic address: katherine.sleeman@kcl.ac.uk.
Maja de BritoCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal.
Simon EtkindCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Kennedy NkhomaCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Ping GuoCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Irene J HigginsonCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Barbara GomesCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal.
Richard HardingCicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy & Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSerious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

methodsWe projected the future burden of serious health-related suffering as defined by the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, by combining WHO mortality projections (2016-60) with estimates of physical and psychological symptom prevalence in 20 conditions most often associated with symptoms requiring palliative care. Projections were described in terms of absolute numbers and proportional change compared with the 2016 baseline data. Results were stratified by World Bank income regions and WHO geographical regions.

findingsBy 2060, an estimated 48 million people (47% of all deaths globally) will die with serious health-related suffering, which represents an 87% increase from 26 million people in 2016. 83% of these deaths will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Serious health-related suffering will increase in all regions, with the largest proportional rise in low-income countries (155% increase between 2016 and 2060). Globally, serious health-related suffering will increase most rapidly among people aged 70 years or older (183% increase between 2016 and 2060). In absolute terms, it will be driven by rises in cancer deaths (16 million people, 109% increase between 2016 and 2060). The condition with the highest proportional increase in serious-related suffering will be dementia (6 million people, 264% increase between 2016 and 2060).

interpretationThe burden of serious health-related suffering will almost double by 2060, with the fastest increases occurring in low-income countries, among older people, and people with dementia. Immediate global action to integrate palliative care into health systems is an ethical and economic imperative.

fundingResearch Challenge Fund, Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, King's College London.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessGlobal HealthHealth StatusAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansInfantMaleMiddle AgedPalliative CareSeverity of Illness Index

Identifiers

PMID31129125
PMCPMC6560023

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.