Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31122927›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2019

Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute stroke in England: linked national database study of 795 869 adults.

Olena O Seminog, Peter Scarborough, F Lucy Wright, Mike Rayner, Michael J Goldacre

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 64 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
64citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
10.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

64 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 118 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Young stroke: An update on epidemiology, emerging risk factors, and future research directions.International journal of stroke : official journal of the International Stroke Society · 2026
    Review
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  15. Review
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4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Olena O SeminogUnit of Health-Care Epidemiology, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK olena.seminog@ndph.ox.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5759-0898
Peter ScarboroughCentre on Population Approaches for Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
F Lucy WrightUnit of Health-Care Epidemiology, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Mike RaynerCentre on Population Approaches for Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michael J GoldacreUnit of Health-Care Epidemiology, Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
University of Oxford · GB

Funding

British Heart Foundation FS/15/34/31656Department of HealthMedical Research Council
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo study trends in stroke mortality rates, event rates, and case fatality, and to explain the extent to which the reduction in stroke mortality rates was influenced by changes in stroke event rates or case fatality.

designPopulation based study.

settingPerson linked routine hospital and mortality data, England.

participants795 869 adults aged 20 and older who were admitted to hospital with acute stroke or died from stroke.

main outcome measuresStroke mortality rates, stroke event rates (stroke admission or stroke death without admission), and case fatality within 30 days after stroke.

resultsBetween 2001 and 2010 stroke mortality rates decreased by 55%, stroke event rates by 20%, and case fatality by 40%. The study population included 358 599 (45%) men and 437 270 (55%) women. Average annual change in mortality rate was -6.0% (95% confidence interval -6.2% to -5.8%) in men and -6.1% (-6.3% to -6.0%) in women, in stroke event rate was -1.3% (-1.4% to -1.2%) in men and -2.1% (-2.2 to -2.0) in women, and in case fatality was -4.7% (-4.9% to -4.5%) in men and -4.4% (-4.5% to -4.2%) in women. Mortality and case fatality but not event rate declined in all age groups: the stroke event rate decreased in older people but increased by 2% each year in adults aged 35 to 54 years. Of the total decline in mortality rates, 71% was attributed to the decline in case fatality (78% in men and 66% in women) and the remainder to the reduction in stroke event rates. The contribution of the two factors varied between age groups. Whereas the reduction in mortality rates in people younger than 55 years was due to the reduction in case fatality, in the oldest age group (≥85 years) reductions in case fatality and event rates contributed nearly equally.

conclusionsDeclines in case fatality, probably driven by improvements in stroke care, contributed more than declines in event rates to the overall reduction in stroke mortality. Mortality reduction in men and women younger than 55 was solely a result of a decrease in case fatality, whereas stroke event rates increased in the age group 35 to 54 years. The increase in stroke event rates in young adults is a concern. This suggests that stroke prevention needs to be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of stroke in people younger than 55 years.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionDatabases, FactualEnglandFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedMortalityStrokeYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID31122927
PMCPMC6529851
OpenAlexW2945746694

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.