ArticleNepal journal of epidemiology2018
Estimation of the burden of people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Kerala state, India.
Article in Nepal journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- From vertical silos to integrated care: administrative agility and normalization of HIV services in Tamil Nadu, India.AIDS research and therapy · 2026Review
- Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWorldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases. MATERIALS AND
methodsThe requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases.
resultsThe estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala.
conclusionThe back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.
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