ArticleBMC veterinary research2019
Risk analysis of African swine fever in Poland based on spatio-temporal pattern and Latin hypercube sampling, 2014-2017.
Article in BMC veterinary research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Wild boar trade and African swine fever risk of introduction into new territories: A quantitative release assessment with retrospective data of wild boar shipments to France and Spain (2010-2017).One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis of African Swine Fever Spreading in Northwestern Italy-The Role of Habitat Interfaces.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Geographical Distribution, Spatial Directional Trends, and Spatio-Temporal Clusters of the First Rapid and Widespread Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Thailand.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Genomic Epidemiology of African Swine Fever Virus Identified in Domestic Pig Farms in South Korea during 2019-2021.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
- Identifying risk clusters for African swine fever in Korea by developing statistical models.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- COVID-19 epidemiology and rural healthcare: a survey in a Spanish village.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Seasonal Occurrence of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Domestic Pigs in EU Member States.Viruses · 2023Article
- Epidemiological Investigation, Risk Factors, Spatial-Temporal Cluster, and Epidemic Trend Analysis of Pseudorabies Virus Seroprevalence in China (2017 to 2021).Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Immunobiological Characteristics of the Attenuated African Swine Fever Virus Strain Katanga-350.Viruses · 2022Article
- Assessing the geographic range of classical swine fever vaccinations by spatiotemporal modelling in Japan.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world.PloS one · 2022Article
- African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review.Viruses · 2021Review
- Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation.BMC veterinary research · 2021Article
- A Review of Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Incursion in Pig Farming within the European Union Scenario.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Modelling the transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Dynamics of Classical Swine Fever Spread in Wild Boar in 2018-2019, Japan.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Article
- Retrospective spatial analysis for African swine fever in endemic areas to assess interactions between susceptible host populations.PloS one · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs. ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry, due to the lack of vaccines and treatments. In this study, the Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was applied to analyze the distribution, dispersion of the epidemic and clustering of ASF in Poland.
resultsThe results show that the center of the epidemic moved gradually towards the southwest, and the distribution of the epidemic changed from south-north to east-west. Through space-time scan statistical analysis, the 3 clusters major of wild boar cases involve longer time spans and larger radii, while the other five with higher relative risks involved in domestic pigs. And then, a quantitative model was constructed to analyse the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) from Poland by the legal export of pork and pork products. The Latin hypercube sampling results show that the probability is relatively low (the average value is 4.577 × 10
conclusionsAll the identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic and the risk analysis model would give a further understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and help to design corresponding measures to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASFV introduction.
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