Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31109024›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2019

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia.

Thomas C McHale, Claudia M Romero-Vivas, Claudio Fronterre, Pedro Arango-Padilla, Naomi R Waterlow, Chad D Nix, Andrew K Falconar, Jorge Cano

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic review.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2023
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Thomas C McHaleDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK. tc.mchale@gmail.com.
Claudia M Romero-VivasDepartamento de Medicina, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia. clromero@uninorte.edu.co.
Claudio FronterreDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK. claudio.fronterre@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-6723-9727
Pedro Arango-PadillaPrograma de Prevención y Control de Enfermedades Trasmitidas por Vectores, Secretaria de Salud Distrital, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia. arangopedrojose@gmail.com.
Naomi R WaterlowDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK. naomi.walker1@lshtm.ac.uk.
Chad D NixDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK. chadamson91@gmail.com.
Andrew K FalconarDepartamento de Medicina, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia. afalconar@uninorte.edu.co.
Jorge CanoDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK. jorge.cano@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-9864-5058

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as globally important infections. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout the major international seaport city of Barranquilla, Colombia in 2014 and 2016 and the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on multiple explanatory variables as potential risk factors identified from other studies and options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse their case incidence risks and identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region were hotspots for both CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks. Additional hotspots occurred in the southwestern and some eastern/southeastern areas during their outbreaks containing part of, or immediately adjacent to, the major circular city road with its import/export cargo warehouses and harbour area. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata and living in a neighbourhood near a major road as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These findings will help to appropriately focus vector control efforts but also challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merit further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the world's tropical and subtropical regions.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremChikungunya FeverColombiaDisease OutbreaksFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleRisk FactorsZika Virus InfectionBayesian Poisson modelsChikungunya virusconditional autoregressive modelsenvironmental risk factorssocioeconomic risk factorsspatial clusteringZika virus

Identifiers

PMID31109024
PMCPMC6572372

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.