ArticleEuropean heart journal2020
Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.
Article in European heart journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 61 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- 2026 AHA/ACC/ADA/ASN Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2026Guideline
- Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.The New England journal of medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Age dependent associations of risk factors with heart failure: pooled population based cohort study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores, age, or years since menopause to predict cardiovascular disease in the Women's Health Initiative.Menopause (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Trial
- Group Medical Visit and Microfinance Intervention for Patients With Diabetes or Hypertension in Kenya.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2021Trial
- Prediction of incident heart failure in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the SMART2-HF model.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Risk prediction in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the LIFE-Preserved model.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Inherited risk of coronary artery disease: redefining care with imaging and genetics.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2026Review
- Real-World Attainment of Guideline-Recommended Lipid Targets in Patients with High and Very High Cardiovascular Risk: A Prospective 12-Month Observational Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Effect of a digital health behaviour change support system on cardiovascular disease risk in a randomized weight loss trial.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Could Malnutrition Be a Potential Parameter for Cardiac Risk Assessment in Older Adults?Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular health metrics among an Iranian population: insights from life's essential 8.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- Age-stratified optimal non-HDL cholesterol and all-cause mortality in a healthy Taiwanese population considering personal risk factors.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025Article
- The value of pregnancy-related factors in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025Review
- Global Effect of Cardiovascular Risk Factors on Lifetime Estimates.The New England journal of medicine · 2025Observational
- 2024 consensus document of the Italian Society of Arterial Hypertension (SIIA) and the Italian Society of Cardiovascular Prevention (SIPREC): update on LDL cholesterol lowering in patients with arterial hypertension.High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension · 2025Review
- Revealing the limitations of 10-year MACE observations: 20-year observed total cardiovascular burden in the EPIC-Norfolk study.Open heart · 2025Article
- Association between social determinants of health and premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and sex differences in US adults: A cross-sectional study.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Dynamic Importance of Genomic and Clinical Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Over the Life Course.Circulation. Genomic and precision medicine · 2025Article
- Cardiovascular risk assessment in daily clinical practice: when and how to use a risk score.European heart journal supplements : journal of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025Article
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
aimsThe benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. METHODS AND
resultsModel development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com.
conclusionThe model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.