ArticleBMC infectious diseases2019
Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological characteristics and interrupted time series analysis of mumps in Quzhou City, 2005-2023.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Spatial Effect of Ecological Environmental Factors on Mumps in China during 2014-2018.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study.Medicine · 2021Observational
- Predictive analysis of the number of human brucellosis cases in Xinjiang, China.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Non-linear relationships and interactions of meteorological factors on mumps in Jinan, China.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China.PloS one · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundOver the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China.
methodsA time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number of mumps cases from 1990 to 2012 in Beijing was performed. First, correlations between meteorological variables and the number of mumps cases were assessed. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was then constructed to predict mumps cases.
resultsMean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed were significantly associated with mumps incidence. After constructing the SARIMAX model, mean temperature at lag 0 (β = 0.016, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.032) was positively associated with mumps incidence, while vapor pressure at lag 2 (β = -0.018, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval -0.038 to -0.002) was negatively associated. SARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
conclusionsThe incidence of mumps in Beijing from 1990 to 2012 was significantly correlated with meteorological variables. Combining meteorological variables, a predictive SARIMAX model that could be used to preemptively estimate the incidence of mumps in Beijing was established.
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