ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2019
Dating and localizing an invasion from post-introduction data and a coupled reaction-diffusion-absorption model.
Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Shape and rate of movement of the invasion front of Xylella fastidiosa spp. pauca in Puglia.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- COVID-19 mortality analysis from soft-data multivariate curve regression and machine learning.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2021Article
- Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France.Biology · 2020Article
- Spatial Bayesian Modeling Applied to the Surveys ofFrontiers in plant science · 2020Article
- Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Article
- Update of the Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed byEFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
Invasion of new territories by alien organisms is of primary concern for environmental and health agencies and has been a core topic in mathematical modeling, in particular in the intents of reconstructing the past dynamics of the alien organisms and predicting their future spatial extents. Partial differential equations offer a rich and flexible modeling framework that has been applied to a large number of invasions. In this article, we are specifically interested in dating and localizing the introduction that led to an invasion using mathematical modeling, post-introduction data and an adequate statistical inference procedure. We adopt a mechanistic-statistical approach grounded on a coupled reaction-diffusion-absorption model representing the dynamics of an organism in an heterogeneous domain with respect to growth. Initial conditions (including the date and site of the introduction) and model parameters related to diffusion, reproduction and mortality are jointly estimated in the Bayesian framework by using an adaptive importance sampling algorithm. This framework is applied to the invasion of Xylella fastidiosa, a phytopathogenic bacterium detected in South Corsica in 2015, France.
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