Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31097711›Full record

ArticleNature communications2019

Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl.

Xin Wang, Lei Cao, Anthony D Fox, Richard Fuller, Larry Griffin, Carl Mitchell, Yunlin Zhao, Oun-Kyong Moon, David Cabot, Zhenggang Xu and 6 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Molecular Detection ofPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Himalayan Marmot (Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Migrating bison engineer the green wave.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019
    Article
  19. Nocturnal foraging lifts time constraints in winter for migratory geese but hardly speeds up fueling.Behavioral ecology : official journal of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Xin WangState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4406-2671
Lei CaoState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, Beijing, China. leicao@rcees.ac.cn.
Anthony D FoxDepartment of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Kalø, Grenåvej 14, DK-8410, Rønde, Denmark.
Richard FullerSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9468-9678
Larry GriffinThe Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT), Slimbridge, Gloucestershire, GL2 7BT, UK.
Carl MitchellThe Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT), Slimbridge, Gloucestershire, GL2 7BT, UK.
Yunlin ZhaoCollege of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, 410004, Changsha, China.
Oun-Kyong MoonAnimal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Gimcheon, 39660, Republic of Korea.
David CabotSchool of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, University College Cork, Distillery Fields, North Mall, Cork, T23 N73K, Ireland.
Zhenggang XuCollege of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, 410004, Changsha, China.
Nyambayar BatbayarWildlife Science and Conservation Center, B-802 Union Building, Sukhbaatar District, Ulaanbaatar, 14210, Mongolia.
Andrea KölzschDepartment of Migration and Immuno-Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0193-1563
Henk P van der JeugdVogeltrekstation-Dutch Centre for Avian Migration and Demography (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, 6708 PB, The Netherlands.
Jesper MadsenDepartment of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Kalø, Grenåvej 14, DK-8410, Rønde, Denmark.
Liding ChenState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, Beijing, China.
Ran NathanMovement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel. ran.nathan@mail.huji.ac.il.

Funding

Israel Science Foundation (ISF) 2525/16National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 31500315National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 31661143027National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 31670424
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAnimal MigrationAnimalsAsia, EasternDucksEuropeGeeseHerbivoryNorth AmericaSeasonsStochastic Processes

Identifiers

PMID31097711
PMCPMC6522631

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.