ArticleNature communications2019
Key determinants of global land-use projections.
Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Irrigation constraints shape the global potential for multiple cropping expansion on existing cropland.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2026Article
- Regional land use and land-use intensity effects on vertebrate biodiversity across Europe identified using species distribution models.Landscape ecology · 2026Article
- Agricultural land-use system management: Research progress and perspectives.Fundamental research · 2025Review
- Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption Under the EAT-Lancet Diet.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.Nature food · 2024Article
- Avoiding an unjust transition to sustainability: An equity metric for spatial conservation planning.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications.Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions · 2023Article
- Multi-model assessment identifies livestock grazing as a major contributor to variation in European Union land and water footprints.Nature food · 2023Article
- Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region.Regional environmental change · 2023Article
- Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Spatial-Temporal Changes and Simulation of Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Case of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Optimization of Spatial Pattern of Land Use: Progress, Frontiers, and Prospects.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security.Nature food · 2022Article
- Investigating Changes Driving Cumulative Impacts on Native Vegetation in Mining Regions in the Northeastern Brazilian Amazon.Environmental management · 2022Article
- Crop damage by vertebrates in Latin America: current knowledge and potential future management directions.PeerJ · 2022Review
- Article
- Wilderness areas in a changing landscape: changes in land use, land cover, and climate.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2022Article
- Representing responses to climate change in spatial land system models.Land degradation & development · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.