ArticleStatistics in medicine2019
Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of lung cancer.
Article in Statistics in medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global, regional, and national trends in burden of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and associated risk factors, 1990-2021: results from the global burden of disease study 2021.NPJ primary care respiratory medicine · 2026Article
- A model that predicts a real-time tumour surface using intra-treatment skin surface and end-of-expiration and end-of-inhalation planning CT images.The British journal of radiology · 2024Article
- Decomposition of disparities in life expectancy with applications to administrative health claims and registry data.Theoretical population biology · 2023Article
- Forecasting prevalence and mortality of Alzheimer's disease using the partitioning models.Experimental gerontology · 2023Article
- A personalized image-guided intervention system for peripheral lung cancer on patient-specific respiratory motion model.International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery · 2022Article
- Underlying mechanisms of change in cancer prevalence in older U.S. adults: contributions of incidence, survival, and ascertainment at early stages.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2022Article
- Epidemiology of geographic disparities in heart failure among US older adults: a Medicare-based analysis.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Geographic disparities in mortality from Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2021Article
- Analysis of Time Trends in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Using Partitioning Approach.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2021Article
- Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of bladder cancer in the United States.Annals of epidemiology · 2020Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundTime trends of lung cancer prevalence and mortality are the result of three competing processes: changes in the incidence rate, stage-specific survival, and ascertainment at early stages. Improvements in these measures act concordantly to improve disease-related mortality, but push the prevalence rate in opposite directions making a qualitative interpretation difficult. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the relative contributions of these components to changes in lung cancer prevalence and mortality.
methodsPartitioning of prevalence and mortality trends into their components using SEER data for 1973-2013.
resultsThe prevalence of lung cancer increases for females and decreases for males. In 1998, the former was due to increased incidence (45%-50% of total trend), improved survival (40%-45%), and increased ascertainment at early stages (10%-15%). In males, a rapidly declining incidence rate overpowered the effects of survival and ascertainment resulting in an overall decrease in prevalence over time. Trends in lung cancer mortality are determined by incidence during 1993-2002 with noticeable contribution of survival after 2002.
conclusionLung cancer incidence was the main driving force behind trends in prevalence and mortality. Improved survival played essential role from 2000 onwards. Trends in stage ascertainment played a small but adverse role. Our results suggest that further improvement in lung cancer mortality can be achieved through advances in early stage ascertainment, especially for males, and that in spite of success in treatment, adenocarcinoma continues to exhibit adverse trends (especially in female incidence) and its role among other histology-specific lung cancers will increase in the near future.
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