ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2019
Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
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- Serodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological data.Epidemics · 2024Review
- Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Inferring viral transmission time from phylogenies for known transmission pairs.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Factors Associated with HIV Testing among Male Students Who Have Engaged in Sexual Behaviour in Zhejiang Province, China.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2023Article
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- A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Diagnosis delays in the UK according to pre or postmigration acquisition of HIV.AIDS (London, England) · 2022Article
- Analysis of Multiple Sexual Partners among 2665 Male College Students Who Have Sexual Behaviour in Zhejiang Province, China.BioMed research international · 2022Article
- Monitoring progress towards the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in key populations living with HIV in Norway.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Review
- Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundMost HIV infections originate from individuals who are undiagnosed and unaware of their infection. Estimation of this quantity from surveillance data is hard because there is incomplete knowledge about (i) the time between infection and diagnosis (TI) for the general population, and (ii) the time between immigration and diagnosis for foreign-born persons.
methodsWe developed a new statistical method for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 and the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV (PLHIV), based on dynamic modelling of heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data. The methods consist of a Bayesian non-linear mixed effects model using multiple biomarkers to estimate TI of HIV-1-positive individuals, and a novel incidence estimator which distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous infections by modelling explicitly the probability that a foreign-born person was infected either before or after immigration. The incidence estimator allows for direct calculation of the number of undiagnosed persons. The new methodology is illustrated combining heterogeneous surveillance data from Sweden between 2003 and 2015.
resultsA leave-one-out cross-validation study showed that the multiple-biomarker model was more accurate than single biomarkers (mean absolute error 1.01 vs ≥1.95). We estimate that 816 [95% credible interval (CI) 775-865] PLHIV were undiagnosed in 2015, representing a proportion of 10.8% (95% CI 10.3-11.4%) of all PLHIV.
conclusionsThe proposed methodology will enhance the utility of standard surveillance data streams and will be useful to monitor progress towards and compliance with the 90-90-90 UNAIDS target.
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