Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31070980›Full record

ArticleJournal of global oncology2019

The Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio Is Not a Valid Proxy for Cancer Survival.

Libby Ellis, Aurélien Belot, Bernard Rachet, Michel P Coleman

Abstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of global oncology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Authors' response.The Indian journal of medical research · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Estimates in Arab Countries in 2018: A GLOBOCAN Data Analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Libby EllisLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Aurélien BelotLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Bernard RachetLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Michel P ColemanLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 11700Cancer Research UK 18525
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThe ratio of cancer mortality and cancer incidence rates in a population has conventionally been used as an indicator of the completeness of cancer registration. More recently, the complement of the mortality-to-incidence ratio (1-M/I) has increasingly been presented as a surrogate for cancer survival. We discuss why this is mistaken in principle and misleading in practice.

methodsWe provide an empirical assessment of the extent to which trends in the 1-M/I ratio reflect trends in cancer survival. We used national cancer incidence, mortality and survival data in England to compare trends in both the 1-M/I ratio and net survival at 1, 5, and 10 years for 19 cancers in men and 20 cancers in women over the 29-year period from 1981 to 2009.

resultsThe absolute difference between the 1-M/I ratio and 5-year net survival for 2009 was less than 5% for only 12 of the 39 cancer/sex combinations examined. For an additional 12, the 1-M/I ratio differed from 5-year net survival by at least 15%. The comparison is also unstable over time; thus, even when differences were small for 2009, the difference between 5-year net survival and the 1-M/I ratio had changed dramatically for most cancers between 1981 and 2009.

conclusionThe 1-M/I ratio lacks any theoretical basis as a proxy for cancer survival. It is not a valid proxy for cancer survival in practice, either, whether at 5 years or at any other time interval since diagnosis. It has none of the useful properties of a population-based survival estimate. It should not be used as a surrogate for cancer survival.

Indexed as

Age FactorsCause of DeathFemaleHistory, 20th CenturyHistory, 21st CenturyHumansIncidenceMaleMortalityNeoplasmsPublic Health SurveillanceRegistriesReproducibility of ResultsRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID31070980
PMCPMC6550058

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.