Predictive Association of Smoking with Depressive Symptoms: a Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Twins.

Longitudinal, genetically informative studies of the association between cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms among adolescents are limited. We examined the longitudinal association of cigarette smoking with subsequent depressive symptoms during adolescence in a Finnish twin cohort. We used prospective data from the population-based FinnTwin12 study (maximum N = 4152 individuals, 1910 twin pairs). Current smoking status and a number of lifetime cigarettes smoked were assessed at the age of 14 and depressive symptoms at the age of 17. Negative binomial regression was conducted to model the association between smoking behavior and subsequent depressive symptoms among individuals, and within-pair analyses were conducted to control for unmeasured familial confounding. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, school grades, drinking alcohol to intoxication, health status, family structure, parental education, and smoking, as well as for pre-existing depressiveness. The results of the individual-level analyses showed that cigarette smoking at the age of 14 predicted depressive symptoms at the age of 17. Compared to never smokers, those who had smoked over 50 cigarettes (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.28-1.60) and regular smokers (IRR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.32-1.62) had higher depression scores. The associations were attenuated when adjusted for measured covariates and further reduced in within-pair analyses. In the within-pair results, the estimates were lower within monozygotic (MZ) pairs compared to dizygotic (DZ) pairs, suggesting that shared genetic factors contribute to the associations observed in individual-based analyses. Thus, we conclude that cigarette smoking is associated with subsequent depressive symptoms during adolescence, but the association is not independent of measured confounding factors and shared genetic influences.