ArticleJournal of translational medicine2019
Development and validation of a risk prediction score for severe acute pancreatitis.
Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Incidence and prognostic role of pleural effusion in patients with acute pancreatitis: a meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Development and validation of a risk prediction score for the severity of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis in Chinese patients.World journal of gastroenterology · 2022Trial
- Usefulness of Random Forest Algorithm in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Trial
- Association between the blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Article
- Acute pancreatitis: mechanisms and therapeutic approaches.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2026Review
- Integrative single-cell and bulk transcriptomic analysis identify R-loop-associated gene signatures driving immune-inflammatory networks in acute pancreatitis.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Pleural effusion within 24 h of admission predicts severe hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis and organ failure: retrospective cohort of 296 patients.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Editorial: Acute pancreatitis infection: epidemiology, prevention, clinical characteristics, treatment, and prediction, volume II.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Exploring the value of blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Logistic regression and other statistical tools in diagnostic biomarker studies.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2024Review
- Predictive value of machine learning for the severity of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence.World journal of gastroenterology · 2023Review
- Relationship between Cholesterol-Related Lipids and Severe Acute Pancreatitis: From Bench to Bedside.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Review
- Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis.Journal of inflammation research · 2023Article
- Editorial: Acute pancreatitis infection: Epidemiology, prevention, clinical characteristics, treatment, and prediction.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Article
- Article
- EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis.Clinical and translational medicine · 2022Observational
- Predicting the Need for Therapeutic Intervention and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Two-Center International Study Using Machine Learning.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
- Impact of multiple drug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial bacteraemia on infected pancreatic necrosis patients.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe available prognostic scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have limitations that restrict their clinical value. The aim of this study was to develop a simple model (score) that could rapidly identify those at risk for SAP.
methodsWe derived a risk model using a retrospective cohort of 700 patients by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create risk categories. The model was internally validated by a tenfold cross-validation and externally validated in a separate prospective cohort of 194 patients.
resultsThe incidence of SAP was 9.7% in the derivation cohort and 9.3% in the validation cohort. A prognostic score (We denoted it as the SABP score), ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen and pleural effusion, was developed by logistic regression and bootstrapping analysis. Patients could be divided into three risk categories according to total SABP score based on CART analysis. The mean probability of developing SAP was 1.9%, 12.8% and 41.6% in patients with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) SABP score, respectively. The AUCs of prognostic score in tenfold cross-validation was 0.873 and 0.872 in the external validation.
conclusionOur risk prediction score may assist physicians in predicting the development of SAP.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.