ArticlePLoS computational biology2019
The statistics of epidemic transitions.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transmission acceleration outperforms the endemic-channel threshold for dengue outbreak detection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Identifying COVID-19 peaks using early warning signals.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Dynamic network entropy for pinpointing the pre-outbreak stage of infectious disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Early detection of disease outbreaks and non-outbreaks using incidence data: A framework using feature-based time series classification and machine learning.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Early warning signals do not predict a warming-induced experimental epidemic.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- FateNet: an integration of dynamical systems and deep learning for cell fate prediction.Bioinformatics (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- An early warning indicator trained on stochastic disease-spreading models with different noises.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Spatio-temporal surveillance and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a retrospective analysis.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Early warnings for multi-stage transitions in dynamics on networks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems: recent developments.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Identifying critical transitions in complex diseases.Journal of biosciences · 2022Review
- Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves.Biology letters · 2021Article
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Ignoring spatial heterogeneity in drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US will impede sustained elimination.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches-rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes-have yielded insight into the dynamics of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. We argue that these approaches may lead to new methods for predicting epidemics. This perspective views pathogen emergence and re-emergence as a "critical transition," and uses the concept of noisy dynamic bifurcation to understand the relationship between the system observables and the distance to this transition. Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.