Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31066982›Full record

ArticleBJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology2019

The cost-effectiveness of universal late-pregnancy screening for macrosomia in nulliparous women: a decision analysis.

D Wastlund, A A Moraitis, J G Thornton, J Sanders, I R White, P Brocklehurst, Gcs Smith, Ecf Wilson

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 12% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Trial
  7. Machine learning-based prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonates in diabetic and non-diabetic pregnancies.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2026
    Article
  8. Adverse perinatal outcomes associated with macrosomia in nulliparous women: A multicenter cohort study.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.

D WastlundThe Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5074-4740
A A MoraitisDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4634-1129
J G ThorntonDivision of Child Health, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9764-6876
J SandersSchool of Healthcare Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5712-9989
I R WhiteMRC Clinical Trials Unit, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6718-7661
P BrocklehurstBirmingham Clinical Trials Unit, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9950-6751
Gcs SmithDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2124-0997
Ecf WilsonCambridge Centre for Health Services Research, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8369-1577
University of Cambridge · GBCancer Research UK Clinical Trials Unit · GBCardiff University · GBMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL · GBUniversity of East Anglia · GBUniversity of Nottingham · GB

Funding

Department of Health 15/105/01Department of Health HTA/15/105/01Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/21Medical Research Council Programme MC_UU_12023/21National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme 15/105/01NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo identify the most cost-effective policy for detection and management of fetal macrosomia in late-stage pregnancy.

designHealth economic simulation model.

settingAll English NHS antenatal services. POPULATION: Nulliparous women in the third trimester treated within the UK NHS.

methodsA health economic simulation model was used to compare long-term maternal-fetal health and cost outcomes for two detection strategies (universal ultrasound scanning at approximately 36 weeks of gestation versus selective ultrasound scanning), combined with three management strategies (planned caesarean section versus induction of labour versus expectant management) of suspected fetal macrosomia. Probabilities, costs and health outcomes were taken from literature.

main outcome measuresExpected costs to the NHS and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from each strategy, calculation of net benefit and hence identification of most cost-effective strategy.

resultsCompared with selective ultrasound, universal ultrasound increased QALYs by 0.0038 (95% CI 0.0012-0.0076), but also costs by £123.50 (95% CI 99.6-149.9). Overall, the health gains were too small to justify the cost increase given current UK thresholds cost-effective policy was selective ultrasound coupled with induction of labour where macrosomia was suspected.

conclusionsThe most cost-effective policy for detection and management of fetal macrosomia is selective ultrasound scanning coupled with induction of labour for all suspected cases of macrosomia. Universal ultrasound scanning for macrosomia in late-stage pregnancy is not cost-effective. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Universal late-pregnancy ultrasound screening for fetal macrosomia is not warranted.

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisDecision Support TechniquesParityAdultEnglandFemaleFetal MacrosomiaHealth Services ResearchHumansPatient SelectionPregnancyPregnancy Trimester, ThirdPrenatal CareUltrasonography, PrenatalEconomic modellinghealth economicsmacrosomiapregnancyscreeningthird-trimesterultrasound

Identifiers

PMID31066982
PMCPMC6771727
OpenAlexW2944600139

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.