SynthesisBreast cancer research and treatment2019
Surrogate threshold effect based on a meta-analysis for the predictive value of progression-free survival for overall survival in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer.
Synthesis in Breast cancer research and treatment, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Correlation between pathologic complete response, event-free survival/disease-free survival and overall survival in neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant HR+/HER2-breast cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2023Pooled it
- Estimation of time to progression and post progression survival using joint modeling of summary level OS and PFS data with an ordinary differential equation model.Journal of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics · 2022Pooled it
- Surrogate Endpoints for Overall Survival in Advanced Hepatocelluar Carcinoma in the Era of Immunotherapy: A Trial Level Meta-Analysis.Liver cancer · 2026Article
- Radiographic progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in first-line ARPi naïve metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.The oncologist · 2026Article
- Article
- Phase III Clinical Trials in First-Line Follicular Lymphoma: A Review of Their Design and Interpretation.Advances in therapy · 2021Review
- Evaluating the evidence behind the surrogate measures included in the FDA's table of surrogate endpoints as supporting approval of cancer drugs.EClinicalMedicine · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeClinical trials investigating therapies for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) generally use progression-free survival (PFS) as primary endpoint, which is not accepted as patient-relevant outcome within the German benefit assessment. Hence a validation of PFS as surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) is needed, e.g., in the indication of HR+, HER2-negative mBC.
methodsA systematic search was conducted. RCT were included if at least one study arm investigated fulvestrant, letrozole, tamoxifen, exemestane, or anastrozole. Additionally, hazard ratios reported for OS/PFS including confidence interval or standard error were mandatory. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to estimate the relation of surrogate endpoint PFS and patient-relevant outcome OS as well as the surrogate threshold effect (STE) which is used to determine thresholds for the estimate of the surrogate endpoint.
results16 studies with 5324 patients in total were included in the analyses. The correlation between hazard ratios of PFS and OS was statistically significant (r = 0.72, 95% CI 0.35-0.90) representing a positive linear relationship. STE analysis was applied. The meta-regression model revealed a STE for HR
conclusionsBased on the derived STE, it is possible to draw conclusions on a significant effect in OS for a hypothetical trial demonstrating an upper confidence limit of HR
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.