ArticleEpidemiology and infection2019
Estimating within-flock transmission rate parameter for H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Minnesota turkey flocks during the 2015 epizootic.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control.Veterinary research · 2023Pooled it
- Modelling a potential zoonotic spillover event of H5N1 influenza.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Understanding Avian Influenza Transmission via Mallard Migration Data.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Location, Age, and Antibodies Predict Avian Influenza Virus Shedding in Ring-Billed and Franklin's Gulls in Minnesota.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Vaccination of poultry against highly pathogenic avian influenza - Part 2. Surveillance and mitigation measures.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2024Article
- Article
- Exact Bayesian inference of epidemiological parameters from mortality data: application to African swine fever virus.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Avian influenza transmission risk along live poultry trading networks in Bangladesh.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Uganda: Implications of complacency and early easing of lockdown.PloS one · 2021Article
- Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks.Scientific reports · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Better control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks requires deeper understanding of within-flock virus transmission dynamics. For such fatal diseases, daily mortality provides a proxy for disease incidence. We used the daily mortality data collected during the 2015 H5N2 HPAI outbreak in Minnesota turkey flocks to estimate the within-flock transmission rate parameter (β). The number of birds in Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered compartments was inferred from the data and used in a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) to estimate the parameters. Novel here was the correction of these data for normal mortality before use in the fitting process. We also used mortality threshold to determine HPAI-like mortality to improve the accuracy of estimates from the back-calculation approach. The estimated β was 3.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-4.3) per day with a basic reproduction number of 12.8 (95% CI 9.2-17.2). Although flock-level estimates varied, the overall estimate was comparable to those from other studies. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the estimated β was highly sensitive to the bird-level latent period, emphasizing the need for its precise estimation. In all, for fatal poultry diseases, the back-calculation approach provides a computationally efficient means to obtain reasonable transmission parameter estimates from mortality data.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.