ArticleEpidemiology and infection2019
Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Age Differences in Pertussis Epidemics, New South Wales, Australia, 2015 and 2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Resurgence of pertussis: Epidemiological trends, contributing factors, challenges, and recommendations for vaccination and surveillance.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Review
- Neonatal and infant mortality after maternal influenza and pertussis vaccination: Probabilistically linked cohort study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Epidemiology of pertussis in Saudi Arabia (2006-2023): regional variations and COVID-19 effects.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Clinical Characteristics and Real-World Drug Treatment of Severe Pertussis in Children: A Retrospective Study.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025Article
- Pertussis in the Tshwane District, Gauteng province, South Africa: A cross-sectional study.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- Pertussis seasonal variation in Northern Vietnam: the evidence from a tertiary hospital.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Population-Based Study of Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors among Persons >50 Years of Age, Australia.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Observational
- Genomic dissection of the microevolution of Australian epidemicEmerging microbes & infections · 2022Article
- ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Pertussis surveillance results from a French general practitioner network, France, 2017 to 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Unlike for many other respiratory infections, the seasonality of pertussis is not well understood. While evidence of seasonal fluctuations in pertussis incidence has been noted in some countries, there have been conflicting findings including in the context of Australia. We investigated this issue by analysing the seasonality of pertussis notifications in Australia using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2016. Data were made available for all states and territories in Australia except for the Australian Capital Territory and were stratified into age groups. Using a time-series decomposition approach, we formulated a generalised additive model where seasonality is expressed using cosinor terms to estimate the amplitude and peak timing of pertussis notifications in Australia. We also compared these characteristics across different jurisdictions and age groups. We found evidence that pertussis notifications exhibit seasonality, with peaks observed during the spring and summer months (November-January) in Australia and across different states and territories. During peak months, notifications are expected to increase by about 15% compared with the yearly average. Peak notifications for children <5 years occurred 1-2 months later than the general population, which provides support to the theory that older household members remain an important source of pertussis infection for younger children. In addition, our results provide a more comprehensive spatial picture of seasonality in Australia, a feature lacking in previous studies. Finally, our findings suggest that seasonal forcing may be useful to consider in future population transmission models of pertussis.
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