Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31056057›Full record

ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population.

Sarah C Hill, Rowena Hansen, Samantha Watson, Vivien Coward, Christine Russell, Jayne Cooper, Steve Essen, Holly Everest, Kris V Parag, Steven Fiddaman and 8 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
2.1field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. The ecology of ageing in wild societies: linking age structure and social behaviour.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Concurrent loss of ciliary genesRoyal Society open science · 2023
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Genesis and spread of multiple reassortants during the 2016/2017 H5 avian influenza epidemic in Eurasia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Preface to theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Article
  19. Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Sarah C Hill1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Rowena Hansen3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Samantha Watson2 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Vivien Coward3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Christine Russell3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Jayne Cooper3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Steve Essen3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Holly Everest3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Kris V Parag1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Steven Fiddaman1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Scott Reid3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Nicola Lewis3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Sharon M Brookes3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Adrian L Smith1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Ben Sheldon1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Christopher M Perrins1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Ian H Brown3 Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency - Weybridge , Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB , UK.
Oliver G Pybus1 Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford , UK.
Animal and Plant Health Agency · GBUniversity of Oxford · GBRoyal Veterinary College · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

Indexed as

AnimalsAnimals, WildAnseriformesDisease OutbreaksInfluenza A virusInfluenza A Virus, H5N1 SubtypeInfluenza in BirdsPhylogenyUnited Kingdomavian influenza virusepidemiologygeneticsH5NXserologywild birds

Identifiers

PMID31056057
PMCPMC6553603
OpenAlexW2944334491

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.