ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019
Quantifying the seasonal drivers of transmission for Lassa fever in Nigeria.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 84 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing the Environmental Drivers of Lassa Fever in West Africa: A Systematic Review.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- A fractional-order analysis of recurrent Lassa fever transmission in Nigeria.Virus research · 2026Article
- Temporal Variation in Early-Life Conditions Impacts on Later-Life Levels of Infection in Sex Specific Ways.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Revealing hidden drivers of Lassa fever through a model-informed approach for reproducing and predicting disease dynamics and guiding control strategies.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Estimation of Lassa fever incidence rates in West Africa: Development of a modeling framework to inform vaccine trial design.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Drivers of Lassa fever in an endemic area of southwestern Nigeria (2017-2021): An epidemiological study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Descriptive epidemiology of Lassa fever, its trend, seasonality, and mortality predictors in Ebonyi State, South- East, Nigeria, 2018-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa.Nature medicine · 2024Article
- A Lassa virus live attenuated vaccine candidate that is safe and efficacious in guinea pigs.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West AfricanJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Trend of Lassa fever cases and factors associated with mortality in Liberia, 2016 - 2021: a secondary data analysis.The Pan African medical journal · 2024Review
- The underlying mechanisms of arenaviral entry through matriglycan.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2024Review
- Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017-2021: an emerging urban trend.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of Viral Encephalitides in West Africa.Infectious disease reports · 2023Review
- Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa fever: A mathematical modeling approach.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Seroprevalence of anti-Lassa Virus IgG antibodies in three districts of Sierra Leone: A cross-sectional, population-based study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Combating Lassa Fever in West African Sub-Region: Progress, Challenges, and Future Perspectives.Viruses · 2023Review
- Modeling the Lassa fever outbreak synchronously occurring with cholera and COVID-19 outbreaks in Nigeria 2021: A threat to Global Health Security.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease that is widespread in West Africa and involves animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission. Animal-to-human transmission occurs upon exposure to rodent excreta and secretions, i.e. urine and saliva, and human-to-human transmission occurs via the bodily fluids of an infected person. To elucidate the seasonal drivers of LF epidemics, we employed a mathematical model to analyse the datasets of human infection, rodent population dynamics and climatological variations and capture the underlying transmission dynamics. The surveillance-based incidence data of human cases in Nigeria were explored, and moreover, a mathematical model was used for describing the transmission dynamics of LF in rodent populations. While quantifying the case fatality risk and the rate of exposure of humans to animals, we explicitly estimated the corresponding contact rate of humans with infected rodents, accounting for the seasonal population dynamics of rodents. Our findings reveal that seasonal migratory dynamics of rodents play a key role in regulating the cyclical pattern of LF epidemics. The estimated timing of high exposure of humans to animals coincides with the time shortly after the start of the dry season and can be associated with the breeding season of rodents in Nigeria. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
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