ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019
Critical transitions in malaria transmission models are consistently generated by superinfection.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Designing reaction-cross-diffusion systems with Turing and wave instabilities.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Var genes, strain hyperdiversity, and malaria transmission dynamics.Trends in parasitology · 2025Review
- A potential transition from a concentrated to a generalized HIV epidemic: the case of Madagascar.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Article
- Superinfection and the hypnozoite reservoir for Plasmodium vivax: a general framework.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- An immune memory-structured SIS epidemiological model for hyperdiverse pathogens.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- conditions for Turing and wave instabilities in reaction-diffusion systems.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- The ratio of single to co-colonization is key to complexity in interacting systems with multiple strains.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Tipping phenomena in typical dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift.Scientific reports · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The history of modelling vector-borne infections essentially begins with the papers by Ross on malaria. His models assume that the dynamics of malaria can most simply be characterized by two equations that describe the prevalence of malaria in the human and mosquito hosts. This structure has formed the central core of models for malaria and most other vector-borne diseases for the past century, with additions acknowledging important aetiological details. We partially add to this tradition by describing a malaria model that provides for vital dynamics in the vector and the possibility of super-infection in the human host: reinfection of asymptomatic hosts before they have cleared a prior infection. These key features of malaria aetiology create the potential for break points in the prevalence of infected hosts, sudden transitions that seem to characterize malaria's response to control in different locations. We show that this potential for critical transitions is a general and underappreciated feature of any model for vector-borne diseases with incomplete immunity, including the canonical Ross-McDonald model. Ignoring these details of the host's immune response to infection can potentially lead to serious misunderstanding in the interpretation of malaria distribution patterns and the design of control schemes for other vector-borne diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
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