ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019
Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Review
- Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Economic freedom, pandemics, and robust political economy.Southern economic journal · 2021Article
- Evaluation of preventive, supportive and awareness building measures among international students in China in response to COVID-19: a structural equation modeling approach.Global health research and policy · 2021Article
- The effect of the definition of 'pandemic' on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Controlling urban traffic-one of the useful methods to ensure safety in Wuhan based on COVID-19 outbreak.Safety science · 2020Article
- Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Preface to theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains-a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
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