ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019
Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2020Pooled it
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- Change in emotional distress, anxiety, depression and PTSD from pre- to post-flood exposure in women residing in low-income settings in South Africa.Archives of women's mental health · 2024Article
- Innovative strategies and challenges mosquito-borne disease control amidst climate change.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Review
- Joint extremes in precipitation and infectious disease in the USA: A bivariate POT study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Impact of wars and natural disasters on emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index: measuring risk transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico.International journal of health geographics · 2022Article
- Assessing the effects of disasters and their aftermath on pregnancy and infant outcomes: A conceptual model.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2021Article
- Spatial and Temporal Variability of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Colombia, 2007 to 2018.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2021Article
- Social Media Mining Toolkit (SMMT).Genomics & informatics · 2020Article
- Review
- Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Impact of climate change on rheumatic diseases: A scoping review.The journal of climate change and healthReview
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the sensitivity of HRE-induced epidemics to variation in the effects of rainfall on the dynamics of mosquito breeding capacity, and the intensity and temporal profile of human population displacement patterns. The recent Hurricane Harvey in Texas motivates the simulations reported. Overall, we find that the impact of vector-borne disease transmission is likely to be greater the earlier the HREs occur in the transmission season. Simulations based on data for Hurricane Harvey suggest that the limited impact it had on vector-borne disease transmission was in part because of when it occurred (late August) relative to the local transmission season, and in part because of the mitigating effect of the displacement of people. We also highlight key data gaps related to models of vector-borne disease transmission in the context of natural disasters. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
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