Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31044386›Full record

ArticleClinical rheumatology2020

Use of machine learning techniques in the development and refinement of a predictive model for early diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis.

Atul Deodhar, Martin Rozycki, Cody Garges, Oodaye Shukla, Theresa Arndt, Tara Grabowsky, Yujin Park

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Article in Clinical rheumatology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
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19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Atul DeodharThe Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Rd., Portland, OR, 97239, USA. deodhara@ohsu.edu.
Martin RozyckiHVH Precision Analytics, Wayne, PA, USA.
Cody GargesProMetrics, LLC, King of Prussia, PA, USA.
Oodaye ShuklaHVH Precision Analytics, Wayne, PA, USA.
Theresa ArndtHVH Precision Analytics, Wayne, PA, USA.
Tara GrabowskyHVH Precision Analytics, Wayne, PA, USA.
Yujin ParkNovartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA.

Funding

Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation N/A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop a predictive mathematical model for the early identification of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) based on the medical and pharmacy claims history of patients with and without AS.

methodsThis retrospective study used claims data from Truven databases from January 2006 to September 2015 (Segment 1) and October 2015 to February 2018 (Segment 2). Machine learning identified features differentiating patients with AS from matched controls; selected features were used as inputs in developing Model A/B to identify patients likely to have AS. Model A/B was trained and developed in Segment 1, and patients predicted to have AS in Segment 1 were followed up in Segment 2 to evaluate the predictive capability of Model A/B.

resultsOf 228,471 patients in Segment 1 without any history of AS, Model A/B predicted 1923 patients to have AS. Ultimately, 1242 patients received an AS diagnosis in Segment 2; 120 of these were correctly predicted by Model A/B, yielding a positive predictive value (PPV) of 6.24%. The diagnostic accuracy of Model A/B compared favorably with that of a clinical model (PPV, 1.29%) that predicted AS based on spondyloarthritis features described in the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society classification criteria. A simplified linear regression model created to test the operability of Model A/B yielded a lower PPV (2.55%).

conclusionsModel A/B performed better than a clinically based model in predicting a diagnosis of AS among patients in a large claims database; its use may contribute to early recognition of AS and a timely diagnosis.

Indexed as

Early DiagnosisMachine LearningModels, TheoreticalAdolescentAdultAgedChildDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentSpondylitis, AnkylosingUnited StatesAnkylosing spondylitisMachine learningMathematical modelSpondyloarthritis

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.