Moving toward the elimination of cervical cancer: modelling the health and economic benefits of increasing uptake of human papillomavirus vaccines.

Background: The human papillomavirus (hpv) is a common sexually transmitted infection and a primary cause of cervical cancer. The Government of Canada has set a target of reaching 90% hpv vaccine coverage among adolescents by 2025. Here, we examine hpv vaccine uptake in school-based immunization programs across Canada and explore how achieving the 90% target could affect the future incidence of cervical cancer, mortality, and health system expenditures in a cohort of Canadian women. Methods: Data for hpv vaccine uptake in the most recent reported school year available in each jurisdiction were provided in 2017 by jurisdictional school-based immunization programs and were used to estimate a national weighted average of 67%. The OncoSim microsimulation model (version 2.5) was used to compare 3 different levels of hpv vaccine uptake (0%, 67%, 90%) on health and economic outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of all 5- to 10-year-old girls in Canada in 2015. Results: Vaccine uptake for girls in school-based programs varied from 55.0% to 92.0% in the jurisdictions reviewed. The OncoSim model projects that increasing uptake to 90% from 67% would result in a 23% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rates (to 3.1 cases from 4.0 cases per 100,000, averaged across the lifetime of the cohort) and a 23% decline in the average annual mortality rate (to 1.0 deaths from 1.3 deaths per 100,000). Finally, the model projects that the health system will incur a cost of $9 million (1% increase) during the lifetime of the cohort if uptake is increased to 90% from 67%. Costs are discounted (1.5%) and expressed in 2016 Canadian dollars. Costs reflect the payer perspective. Conclusions: Our model shows that increasing hpv vaccine uptake to 90% from current levels for girls in school-based immunization programs could result in substantial reductions in the future incidence and mortality rates for cervical cancer in Canada.