Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31020418›Full record

ArticleJournal of cancer research and clinical oncology2019

Different statistical techniques dealing with confounding in observational research: measuring the effect of breast-conserving therapy and mastectomy on survival.

Marissa C van Maaren, Saskia le Cessie, Luc J A Strobbe, Catharina G M Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Philip M P Poortmans, Sabine Siesling

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Confounding by indication in the evaluation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy: a sequential Cox analysis of an eight-year single-centre breast cancer cohort.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Which real indications remain for mastectomy?Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Marissa C van MaarenDepartment of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, P.O. Box 19079, 3501 DB, Utrecht, The Netherlands. m.vanmaaren@iknl.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5708-2559
Saskia le CessieDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Luc J A StrobbeDepartment of Surgical Oncology, Canisius Wilhelmina Hospital, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Catharina G M Groothuis-OudshoornDepartment of Health Technology and Services Research, Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
Philip M P PoortmansDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Institut Curie, Paris, France.
Sabine SieslingDepartment of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, P.O. Box 19079, 3501 DB, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposePropensity trimming, hierarchical modelling and instrumental variable (IV) analysis are statistical techniques dealing with confounding, cluster-related variation or confounding by severity. This study aimed to explain (dis)advantages of these techniques in estimating the effect of breast-conserving therapy (BCT) and mastectomy on 10-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS).

methodsAll women diagnosed in 2005 with primary T1-2N0-1 breast cancer treated with BCT or mastectomy were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. We used multivariable Cox regression to correct for confounding. Propensity trimming was used to create a more homogeneous population for which the treatment choice was not self-evident. Hospital of surgery was used as hierarchical level to handle hospital-related variation, and as IV to deal with unmeasured confounding.

resultsMultivariable Cox regression showed higher 10-year DMFS for BCT than mastectomy [HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-82)]. Propensity trimming on the 10-90th and the 20-80th percentile of the propensity score distribution and hierarchical modelling showed similar HRs. IV analysis showed no significant difference between BCT and mastectomy.

conclusionUnmeasured confounding is very difficult to eliminate in observational research. We cannot conclude that BCT or mastectomy has a causal relationship with 10-year DMFS. It is crucial to critically evaluate all model's assumptions, and to be careful in drawing firm conclusions.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overBreast NeoplasmsConfounding Factors, EpidemiologicFemaleHumansMastectomyMastectomy, SegmentalMiddle AgedNetherlandsObservational Studies as TopicPropensity ScoreProportional Hazards ModelsRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicBreast cancerBreast-conserving therapyHierarchical modellingInstrumental variableMastectomyPropensity scores

Identifiers

PMID31020418
PMCPMC11810345

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.