Bayesian-Estimated Hierarchical HMMs Enable Robust Analysis of Single-Molecule Kinetic Heterogeneity.

Single-molecule kinetic experiments allow the reaction trajectories of individual biomolecules to be directly observed, eliminating the effects of population averaging and providing a powerful approach for elucidating the kinetic mechanisms of biomolecular processes. A major challenge to the analysis and interpretation of these experiments, however, is the kinetic heterogeneity that almost universally complicates the recorded single-molecule signal versus time trajectories (i.e., signal trajectories). Such heterogeneity manifests as changes and/or differences in the transition rates that are observed within individual signal trajectories or across a population of signal trajectories. Because characterizing kinetic heterogeneity can provide critical mechanistic information, we have developed a computational method that effectively and comprehensively enables such analysis. To this end, we have developed a computational algorithm and software program, hFRET, that uses the variational approximation for Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of a hierarchical hidden Markov model, thereby enabling robust identification and characterization of kinetic heterogeneity. Using simulated signal trajectories, we demonstrate the ability of hFRET to accurately and precisely characterize kinetic heterogeneity. In addition, we use hFRET to analyze experimentally recorded signal trajectories reporting on the conformational dynamics of ribosomal pre-translocation (PRE) complexes. The results of our analyses demonstrate that PRE complexes exhibit kinetic heterogeneity, reveal the physical origins of this heterogeneity, and allow us to expand the current model of PRE complex dynamics. The methods described here can be applied to signal trajectories generated using any type of signal and can be easily extended to the analysis of signal trajectories exhibiting more complex kinetic behaviors. Moreover, variations of our approach can be easily developed to integrate kinetic data obtained from different experimental constructs and/or from molecular dynamics simulations of a biomolecule of interest.