Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31002795›Full record

ArticleCell2019

Polygenic Prediction of Weight and Obesity Trajectories from Birth to Adulthood.

Amit V Khera, Mark Chaffin, Kaitlin H Wade, Sohail Zahid, Joseph Brancale, Rui Xia, Marina Distefano, Ozlem Senol-Cosar, Mary E Haas, Alexander Bick and 9 more

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Cell, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 416 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
416citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05466097 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Development of Polygenic Risk Score to Predict the Efficacy of Weight Loss Intervention in Children and Adolescents With Obesity

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorFar Eastern Memorial HospitalRan2022 to 2025Enrolled300ConditionsObesity, Children
NCT06067451 naunknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Impact of SMART GOAL Setting Protocol on Body Weight and Metabolic Parameters in Children and Adolescents With Prediabetes; a Randomized Clinical Trial.

TypeinterventionalSponsorNorthwell HealthRan2023 to 2025Enrolled80ConditionsPreDiabetes, Adolescent Obesity, Behavior, Health, Nutritional and Metabolic DiseasesArmsSMART GOALS Setting Tool/ Protocol
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

416 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Identifying Key Predictors of Mid-Childhood Obesity in a Population-Based Cohort Study: An Evidence Synthesis and Predictive Modeling Study.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025
    Pooled it
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  4. Polygenic Risk and Nutrient Intake Interactions on Obesity Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025
    Pooled it
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356 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Amit V KheraCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Cardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA. Electronic address: avkhera@mgh.harvard.edu.
Mark ChaffinCardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
Kaitlin H WadeMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK; Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK; Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK.
Sohail ZahidCardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Joseph BrancaleDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Obesity, Metabolism, and Nutrition Institute, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.
Rui XiaThe Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Marina DistefanoLaboratory for Molecular Medicine, Partners HealthCare Personalized Medicine, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA 02115, USA.
Ozlem Senol-CosarLaboratory for Molecular Medicine, Partners HealthCare Personalized Medicine, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA 02115, USA.
Mary E HaasCardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
Alexander BickCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Cardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Krishna G AragamCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Cardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Eric S LanderCardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Biology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Program in Health Sciences and Technology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
George Davey SmithMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK; Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK.
Heather Mason-SuaresLaboratory for Molecular Medicine, Partners HealthCare Personalized Medicine, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA 02115, USA.
Myriam FornageThe Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Matthew LeboLaboratory for Molecular Medicine, Partners HealthCare Personalized Medicine, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA 02115, USA.
Nicholas J TimpsonMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK; Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK; Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK.
Lee M KaplanDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Obesity, Metabolism, and Nutrition Institute, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.
Sekar KathiresanCenter for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Cardiovascular Disease Initiative, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA. Electronic address: skathiresan1@mgh.harvard.edu.

Funding

Center for Common Disease GeneticsUM1HG008895 · NHGRI · BROAD INSTITUTE, INC. · PI DALY, MARK JOSEPH, GABRIEL, STACEY · 2016 to 2020
$111.2M
ROLE OF DIETARY CONSTITUENTS ON GENE EXPRESSION IN INTESTINAL EPITHELIUMP30DK040561 · NIDDK · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI MARTIN TORRIANI · 1994 to 2026
$31.6M
A Center for GEI Association StudiesU01HG004424 · NHGRI · MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY · PI GABRIEL, STACEY · 2007 to 2010
$21.4M
Using genetic variation to study biology of blood lipids & coronary heart diseaseR01HL127564 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Pradeep Natarajan, Gina Marie Peloso · 2015 to 2026
$7.3M
Genome Wide Association Coordinating CenterU01HG004446 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI WEIR, BRUCE S. · 2007 to 2011
$6.6M
Small Animal Metabolic Surgery (SAMS) Resource CoreRC2DK088661 · NIDDK · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI KAPLAN, LEE MICHAEL · 2009 to 2010
$6.1M
Neuroendocrine Response to Gastric Bypass in Nonhuman PrimatesRC4DK090956 · NIDDK · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ELMQUIST, JOEL K., GROVE, KEVIN L · 2010 to 2010
$3.8M
GWAS of longitudinal blood pressure profiles from young adulthood to middle-ageU01HG004729 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR HOUSTON · PI FORNAGE, MYRIAM · 2008 to 2009
$1.1M
Polygenic prediction of common, complex diseasesK08HG010155 · NHGRI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI KHERA, AMIT VIKRAM · 2018 to 2021
$1.1M
Department of Health S-BRC-1215-20011Medical Research Council G9815508Medical Research Council MC_PC_19009Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_12013/3NHGRI NIH HHS K08 HG010155NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG004424NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG004446NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG004729NHGRI NIH HHS UM1 HG008895NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268200900041CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201300025CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201300026CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201300027CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201300028CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201300029CNHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL127564NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK040561NIDDK NIH HHS RC2 DK088661NIDDK NIH HHS RC4 DK090956Wellcome Trust 102215/2/13/2Wellcome Trust 202802/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Severe obesity is a rapidly growing global health threat. Although often attributed to unhealthy lifestyle choices or environmental factors, obesity is known to be heritable and highly polygenic; the majority of inherited susceptibility is related to the cumulative effect of many common DNA variants. Here we derive and validate a new polygenic predictor comprised of 2.1 million common variants to quantify this susceptibility and test this predictor in more than 300,000 individuals ranging from middle age to birth. Among middle-aged adults, we observe a 13-kg gradient in weight and a 25-fold gradient in risk of severe obesity across polygenic score deciles. In a longitudinal birth cohort, we note minimal differences in birthweight across score deciles, but a significant gradient emerged in early childhood and reached 12 kg by 18 years of age. This new approach to quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity affords new opportunities for clinical prevention and mechanistic assessment.

Indexed as

Body WeightAdolescentBody Mass IndexChildDatabases, FactualFemaleGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansInfant, NewbornLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedMultifactorial InheritanceObesityRisk FactorsSeverity of Illness Indexbody mass indexgenetic risk predictiongenomic medicinehuman geneticsmelanocortin 4 receptorpolygenic scoresevere obesityUK Biobankweight

Identifiers

PMID31002795
PMCPMC6661115

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.