Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30994096›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene2019

Resurgence of Pertussis Infections in Shandong, China: Space-Time Cluster and Trend Analysis.

Yuzhou Zhang, Hilary Bambrick, Kerrie Mengersen, Shilu Tong, Lei Feng, Li Zhang, Guifang Liu, Aiqiang Xu, Wenbiao Hu

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Yuzhou ZhangSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Hilary BambrickSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Kerrie MengersenSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Shilu TongShanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Lei FengShandong Provincial Centre of Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
Li ZhangShandong Provincial Centre of Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
Guifang LiuShandong Provincial Centre of Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
Aiqiang XuShandong Provincial Centre of Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
Wenbiao HuSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although vaccination is effective in preventing infection, pertussis remains endemic worldwide, including China. To lead better targeted prevention strategies, we examined dynamics of spatial and temporal patterns of pertussis transmission in Shandong, China, from 2009 to 2017. We used space-time cluster analysis, logistic regression analysis, and regression tree model to detect the changes in spatial patterns of pertussis infections in Shandong Province, China, between periods (2009-2011, 2012-2014, and 2015-2017). The yearly pertussis incidence rates dramatically increased by 16.8 times from 2009 to 2017. Shifting patterns of peaks of pertussis infections were observed over both time (from June-July to August-September) and space (from Linyi to Jinan), with increasing RR from 4.1 (95% CI: 2.3-7.4) (2009-2011) to 6.1 (95% CI: 5.6-6.7) (2015-2017) and obvious coincidence of peak time. West Shandong had larger odds of increased infections over the study period (odds ratio: 1.52 [95% CI: 1.05-2.17]), and pertussis had larger odds of spreading to east (odds ratio: 2.32 [95% CI: 1.63-3.31]) and north (odds ratio: 1.69 [95% CI: 1.06-2.99]) over time. Regression tree model indicated that the mean difference in yearly average pertussis incidence between 2009-2011 and 2015-2017 increased by more than 4-fold when the longitudes of counties are < 118.0°E. The geographic expansion of pertussis infection may increase the risk of epidemic peaks, coinciding with increased infections in the future. The findings might offer evidence for targeting preventive measures to the areas most in need to minimize the impact of the disease.

Indexed as

Spatio-Temporal AnalysisChinaCluster AnalysisEpidemicsHumansSeasonsTime FactorsWhooping Cough

Identifiers

PMID30994096
PMCPMC6553910

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.