Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30988199›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019

Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels.

Fengqing Chao, Patrick Gerland, Alex R Cook, Leontine Alkema

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 69 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
69citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

69 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Clinical Risk Factors Associated With Late-Onset Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Masculinization of populations reverses sex differences in fertility.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Observational
  8. Article
  9. Sex differences in the global burden of autism spectrum disorders: An analysis based on GBD 2021 data.Zhong nan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Central South University. Medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  10. Temperature and sex ratios at birth.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Secondary Sex Ratio in the Face of Global Challenges: Beyond the Headlines.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Observational
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article

9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Fengqing ChaoInstitute of Policy Studies, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 259599; chao.fengqing@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-2228-5970
Patrick GerlandPopulation Estimates and Projections Section, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017.ORCID 0000-0002-2082-3122
Alex R CookSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore 117549.
Leontine AlkemaDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-9304.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970-2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million.

Indexed as

Sex RatioBayes TheoremDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansInfantLive BirthMaleObservational Studies as TopicPregnancyBayesian hierarchical modelmissing female birthssex ratio at birthsex-selective abortionson preference

Identifiers

PMID30988199
PMCPMC6511063

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.