Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30981685›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology2019

The contribution of injection drug use to hepatitis C virus transmission globally, regionally, and at country level: a modelling study.

Adam Trickey, Hannah Fraser, Aaron G Lim, Amy Peacock, Samantha Colledge, Josephine G Walker, Janni Leung, Jason Grebely, Sarah Larney, Natasha K Martin and 4 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 146 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
146citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
14.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

146 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 235 citations in OpenAlex.

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  18. Impact of Antiviral Therapy Scale-Up Among People Who Inject Drugs in Scotland: Regional Evidence of Hepatitis C Virus Elimination.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
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86 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.

Adam TrickeyPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions, UK. Electronic address: adam.trickey@bristol.ac.uk.
Hannah FraserPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Aaron G LimPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Amy PeacockNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Samantha ColledgeNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Josephine G WalkerPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Janni LeungNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Youth Substance Abuse Research, Faculty of Health and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jason GrebelyInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; The Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Sarah LarneyNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Natasha K MartinPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.
Matthew HickmanPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions, UK.
Louisa DegenhardtNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Margaret T MayPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions, UK; National Institute for Health Research Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Peter VickermanPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions, UK.
UNSW Sydney · AUNational Institute for Health Research · GBUniversity of Bristol · GBUniversity of California System · USUniversity of Queensland · AU

Funding

UC San Diego Clinical and Translational Research InstituteUL1TR001442 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI FIRESTEIN, GARY S, HOGARTH, MICHAEL · 2015 to 2024
$88.3M
VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI David Mitchell Smith · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
Modeling Structural HIV Determinants in Substance Users and related populationsR01DA037773 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA, STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2015 to 2017
$1.4M
Using existing data to understand and ameliorate risk in opioid agonist therapyR01DA044170 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES · PI DEGENHARDT, LOUISA · 2017 to 2019
$641k
Medical Research Council MR/K006525/1NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001442NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA037773NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA044170
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWHO aims to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. Injection drug use is an important risk factor for HCV transmission, but its contribution to country-level and global epidemics is unknown. We estimated the contribution of injection drug use to risk for HCV epidemics globally, regionally, and at country level.

methodsWe developed a dynamic deterministic HCV transmission model to simulate country-level HCV epidemics among people who inject drugs and the general population. Each country's model was calibrated using country-specific data from UN datasets and systematic reviews on the prevalence of HCV and injection drug use. The population attributable fraction of HCV transmission associated with injection drug use was estimated-defined here as the percentage of HCV infections prevented if additional HCV transmission due to injection drug use was removed between 2018 and 2030.

findingsThe model included 88 countries (85% of the global population). The model predicted 0·23% (95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·16-0·31) of the global population were injection drug users in 2017, and 8% (5-12) of prevalent HCV infections were among people who currently inject drugs. Globally, if the increased risk for HCV transmission among people who inject drugs was removed, an estimated 43% (95% CrI 25-67) of incident HCV infections would be prevented from 2018 to 2030, varying regionally. This population attributable fraction was higher in high-income countries (79%, 95% CrI 57-97) than in countries of low and middle income (38%, 24-64) and was associated with the percentage of a country's prevalent HCV infections that are among people who inject drugs.

interpretationUnsafe injecting practices among people who inject drugs contribute substantially to incident HCV infections globally. Any intervention that can reduce HCV transmission among people who inject drugs will have a pronounced effect on country-level incidence of HCV.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

Disease Transmission, InfectiousGlobal HealthHepatitis CHumansModels, StatisticalSubstance Abuse, Intravenous

Identifiers

PMID30981685
PMCPMC6698583
OpenAlexW2940255242

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.