ArticlePloS one2019
Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Look Towards Next Steps: Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Burden in the Asia Region.JACC. Asia · 2026Article
- G20 Country Burden of High BMI-Related Liver Cancer: Trends from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Development and preliminary validation of a fertility concept scale for Chinese post-00s college students based on thematic analysis.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- Effects of tactile feedback in post-stroke hand rehabilitation on functional connectivity and cortical activation: an fNIRS study.Biomedical optics express · 2025Article
- Edentulism Trends in Chinese Women vs US and Global Women: GBD 2021 Outlook.International journal of women's health · 2025Article
- Epidemiologic characteristics of leprosy in Mainland China, 2004-2020.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Demand structure prediction and adaptation path of rural teachers in western China under population change.PloS one · 2025Article
- Exploring the achievements and forecasting of SDG 3 using machine learning algorithms: Bangladesh perspective.PloS one · 2025Article
- Simple clinical predictors for making directive decisions in osteoporosis screening for women: a cross-sectional study.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2024Article
- An innovative MGM-BPNN-ARIMA model for China's energy consumption structure forecasting from the perspective of compositional data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Intergenerational support, activities of daily living, and the interaction on psychological distress in older adults.Frontiers in psychology · 2024Article
- Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Influence of comorbidity of chronic diseases on basic activities of daily living among older adults in China: a propensity score-matched study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Trends in migraine incidence among women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019 and the prediction for 2030: an analysis of national data in China.The journal of headache and pain · 2023Article
- Challenges in setting up a large population-based prospective cohort study in India - learnings from the LoCARPoN cohort.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2023Review
- SMOTE-CD: SMOTE for compositional data.PloS one · 2023Article
- Incidence of rhegmatogenous retinal detachments is increasing in Wenzhou, China.International journal of ophthalmology · 2023Article
- Long-term trends in the burden of edentulism in China over three decades: A Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Trends and disparities in disease burden of age-related macular degeneration from 1990 to 2019: Results from the global burden of disease study 2019.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers in China, 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2030.BMC cancer · 2022Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0-14), the middle-aged (aged 15-64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam's trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively "young". Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development.
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