ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2019
Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
- Prevalence of Enterocytozoon bieneusi and Encephalitozoon spp. in Swedish patients with suspected gastrointestinal parasite infection: a cross-sectional molecular study.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026Article
- Progress towards HIV transmission elimination targets: model-based estimation of incidence and the extent of undiagnosed infection, Scotland, 1981 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- HIV self-testing for men who have sex with men in Sweden. A cross-sectional study concerning interest to use HIV self-tests.Global health action · 2022Article
- Finnish HIV Quality of Care Register (FINHIV).BMJ open · 2022Article
- Monitoring progress towards the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in key populations living with HIV in Norway.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BackgroundSweden has a low HIV prevalence. However, among new HIV diagnoses in 2016, the proportion of late presenters and migrants was high (59% and 81%, respectively). This poses challenges in estimating the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV (PLHIV).AimTo estimate the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden comparing two models with different demands on data availability and modelling expertise.MethodsAn individual-based stochastic simulation model of HIV positive populations (SSOPHIE) and the incidence method of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool were applied to clinical, surveillance and migration data from Sweden 1980-2016.ResultsSSOPHIE estimated that the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in 2013 was 26% (n = 2,100; 90% plausibility range (PR): 900-5,000) for all PLHIV, 17% (n = 600; 90% PR: 100-2,000) for men who have sex with men (MSM), 35% in male (n = 300; 90% PR: 200-700) and 34% in female (n = 400; 90% PR: 200-800) migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The estimates for the ECDC model in 2013 were 21% (n = 2,013; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1,831-2,189) for all PLHIV, 15% (n = 369; 95% CI: 299-434) for MSM and 21% (n = 530; 95% CI: 436-632) for migrants from SSA.ConclusionsThe proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden is uncertain. SSOPHIE estimates had wide PR. The ECDC model estimates were unreliable because migration was not accounted for. Better migration data and estimation methods are required to obtain reliable estimates of proportions of undiagnosed PLHIV in similar settings.
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