Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30966967›Full record

SynthesisPhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2019

Sparse evidence for selection on phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature.

Pieter A Arnold, Adrienne B Nicotra, Loeske E B Kruuk

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Short- and long-term costs of reproduction revealed by telomere dynamics in wild greater horseshoe bats.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Reversibility of sex changes in the plant kingdom: more important than we thought?Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Evolution of Thermal Plasticity inEcology and evolution · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Pieter A ArnoldDivision of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University , Acton, Australian Capital Territory, 2601 Australia.
Adrienne B NicotraDivision of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University , Acton, Australian Capital Territory, 2601 Australia.
Loeske E B KruukDivision of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University , Acton, Australian Capital Territory, 2601 Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Phenotypic plasticity is frequently assumed to be an adaptive mechanism by which organisms cope with rapid changes in their environment, such as shifts in temperature regimes owing to climate change. However, despite this adaptive assumption, the nature of selection on plasticity within populations is still poorly documented. Here, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimates of selection on thermal plasticity. Although there is a large literature on thermal plasticity, we found very few studies that estimated coefficients of selection on measures of plasticity. Those that did do not provide strong support for selection on plasticity, with the majority of estimates of directional selection on plasticity being weak and non-significant, and no evidence for selection on plasticity overall. Although further estimates are clearly needed before general conclusions can be drawn, at present there is not clear empirical support for any assumption that plasticity in response to temperature is under selection. We present a multivariate mixed model approach for robust estimation of selection on plasticity and demonstrate how it can be implemented. Finally, we highlight the need to consider the environments, traits and conditions under which plasticity is (or is not) likely to be under selection, if we are to understand phenotypic responses to rapid environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Indexed as

Adaptation, PhysiologicalCold TemperatureEnvironmentHot TemperatureLife History TraitsSelection, GeneticModels, BiologicalPhenotypeadaptive plasticityclimate changeglobal warmingreaction normselection gradientselection on plasticity

Identifiers

PMID30966967
PMCPMC6365867

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.