ArticlePloS one2019
Outlook for tuberculosis elimination in California: An individual-based stochastic model.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Agent-based modelling of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- A systematic review of cost-utility analyses of screening methods in latent tuberculosis infection in high-risk populations.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Posttuberculosis Consequences on Tuberculosis Prevention Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness among New Immigrants, Canada.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Risks and consequences of TB and its prevention in cost-utility analyses among immigrants: a systematic review.IJTLD open · 2025Review
- Policy Impediments to Tuberculosis Elimination: Consequences of an Absent Medicare National Coverage Determination for Tuberculosis Prevention.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2025Article
- Impact of multiple consultations and switching in treatment-seeking in tuberculosis: Mathematical modelling and optimal control.PloS one · 2025Article
- The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- Association of Area-Based Socioeconomic Measures with Tuberculosis Incidence in California.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2023Article
- Health insurance, healthcare utilization and language use among populations who experience risk for tuberculosis, California 2014-2017.PloS one · 2022Article
- Epidemiology and Prevention of Tuberculosis and Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection in the United States.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2021Review
- Model-based Cost-effectiveness of State-level Latent Tuberculosis Interventions in California, Florida, New York, and Texas.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Confronting Structural Racism in the Prevention and Control of Tuberculosis in the United States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Estimated Population-Level Impact of Using a Six-Week Regimen of Daily Rifapentine to Treat Latent Tuberculosis Infection in the United States.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2020Article
- Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2020Article
- Article
- A Decade of the National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention's Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
- Modeling the Impact of Recommendations for Primary Care-Based Screening for Latent Tuberculosis Infection in California.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
- Policy Implications of Mathematical Modeling of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Testing and Treatment Strategies to Accelerate Tuberculosis Elimination.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
rationaleAs part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI).
objectivesTo estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California.
methodsWe created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN
resultsIn the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4-16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to $48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to $3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY.
conclusionsSubstantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks.
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