Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30950882›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2019

Modelling the potential impact of providing preexposure prophylaxis in pregnant and breastfeeding women in South Africa.

Dvora L Joseph Davey, Linda-Gail Bekker, Yolanda Gomba, Thomas Coates, Landon Myer, Leigh F Johnson

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Dvora L Joseph DaveyDepartment of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Linda-Gail BekkerDesmond Tutu HIV Foundation, Cape Town, South Africa.
Yolanda GombaDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town.
Thomas CoatesGeffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Landon MyerDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town.
Leigh F JohnsonCentre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
University of California, Los Angeles · USUniversity of Cape Town · ZADesmond Tutu HIV Foundation · ZAWellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa · ZA

Funding

Observational Antiretroviral Studies In Southern Africa (OASIS) CollaborationU01AI069924 · NIAID · UNIVERSITAT BERN · PI Cleophas Chimbetete, Mary-Ann Davies · 2006 to 2026
$55.9M
UCLA Rapid, Relevant, Rigorous Implementation Science HubP30MH058107 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Nina Thawata Harawa · 1997 to 2026
$53.5M
Postdoctoral Training in Global AIDS Prevention ResearchT32MH080634 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI JESSE LAWTON CLARK, Pamina Mae Gorbach · 2007 to 2026
$6.4M
Evaluating the PrEP cascade in HIV-negative pregnant and breastfeeding women in South Africa (PrEP-PP)R01MH116771 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI JOSEPH DAVEY, DVORA LEAH, MYER, BENJAMIN LANDON · 2018 to 2022
$2.5M
Evaluation of pre-exposure prophylaxis cascade in pregnant and breastfeeding women in Cape Town, South AfricaK01TW011187 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI JOSEPH DAVEY, DVORA LEAH · 2018 to 2022
$698k
FIC NIH HHS K01 TW011187NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069924NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH058107NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH116771NIMH NIH HHS T32 MH080634
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveHIV-uninfected pregnant and breastfeeding women are at high risk of HIV acquisition, contributing to vertical transmission of HIV. Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is safe in pregnancy, but PrEP in pregnancy is not policy in many countries including South Africa. We evaluated the potential impact of providing PrEP for pregnant/breastfeeding women using a HIV model for South Africa.

methodsOur model considers two scenarios: a conservative scenario that matches the experience reported in the Kenyan PrEP programme for pregnant women (probability of uptake = 32% and 11% in high-risk and low-risk women, respectively); and an optimistic scenario with PrEP initiated by 80% of all pregnant women. We compared this with PrEP for female sex workers, MSM and adolescent girls/young women. Women are assumed to remain on PrEP throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, and an equivalent average PrEP duration (2 years) is assumed in other scenarios.

resultsBetween 2020 and 2030, if PrEP is provided to pregnant/breastfeeding mothers, we project a 2.5% reduction in total HIV transmission [95% credibility interval (CI): 2.4-2.6%] in the conservative scenario and 7.2% (95% CI: 6.8-7.5%) in the optimistic scenario, which is similar to that in the female sex worker and MSM PrEP scenarios (1.9% and 3.0%, respectively). Without PrEP, 76 000 (95% CI: 64 000-90 000) new cases of vertical transmission are expected; PrEP provision may reduce these infections by 13% (95% CI: 13-14%) in the conservative scenario and 41% (95% CI: 39-44%) in the optimistic scenario.

conclusionHigh levels of uptake of and adherence to PrEP among pregnant/breastfeeding women could substantially reduce maternal and infant HIV acquisition in South Africa.

Indexed as

Breast FeedingAdolescentDisease Transmission, InfectiousFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansModels, StatisticalPre-Exposure ProphylaxisPregnancyPregnancy Complications, InfectiousSouth AfricaTreatment Adherence and ComplianceYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID30950882
PMCPMC6561341
OpenAlexW2937128898

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.