Land use, REDD+ and the status of wildlife populations in Yaeda Valley, northern Tanzania.

REDD+ projects primarily focus on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. These projects are regularly evaluated against their core objective of conserving carbon stocks, but their contribution to biodiversity conservation has rarely been assessed. To assess the conservation value of the area and the relative performance of a REDD+ land use plan in Yaeda Valley, a semi-arid savannah ecosystem in northern Tanzania, we implemented an annual wildlife monitoring scheme. Based on direct sightings and indirect signs of wildlife, obtained from stratified walking transects conducted annually from 2015-2018, we estimated annual trends of mammal species richness and wildlife densities in three REDD+ and three non-REDD+ land-use strata. Our surveys document a near complete mammal community in the area. Species accumulation curves, and subsequent statistical comparisons, indicated highest mammal species richness in the woodland habitats (both REDD+ and non REDD+ strata) as compared to more human and livestock impacted areas, and suggested constant species richness from 2015-2018. To estimate stratum- and year-specific livestock and wildlife densities (cattle, donkey, goat and sheep combined, Thomson's gazelle, Kirk's dik-dik) and wildlife sign densities (aardvark, bushbuck, bushpig, Kirk's dik dik, eland, elephant, Maasai giraffe, greater kudu, hyena, impala, lesser kudu, warthog, wildebeest, Plains zebra), we fitted species-specific detection functions in a distance sampling framework. Species-specific densities varied between 2015 and 2018 and showed substantial increases and occasional declines in other species-stratum combinations. However, population growth rates were not systematically associated with specific land-use strata. Although our results do not explicitly provide evidence that REDD+ land-use plans directly co-benefit wildlife conservation, they show that REDD+ areas have the potential to maintain intact wildlife assemblages. To ensure effective long-term conservation outcomes, we advocate for a more formal integration of wildlife conservation goals in the REDD+ scheme.