Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30941521›Full record

ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2019

Predicting discharge placement after elective surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis using machine learning methods.

Paul T Ogink, Aditya V Karhade, Quirina C B S Thio, William B Gormley, Fetullah C Oner, Jorrit J Verlaan, Joseph H Schwab

Open access · hybridAbstract readVideo-Audio Media
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Artificial Intelligence in Planning for Spine Surgery.Current reviews in musculoskeletal medicine · 2025
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Machine learning can predict surgical indication: new clustering model from a large adult spine deformity database.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Review
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Spine Care.International journal of spine surgery · 2023
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Paul T OginkUMC Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands. ptogink@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-9822-7208
Aditya V KarhadeMassachusetts General Hospital - Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Quirina C B S ThioMassachusetts General Hospital - Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
William B GormleyBrigham and Women's Hospital - Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Fetullah C OnerUMC Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Jorrit J VerlaanUMC Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Joseph H SchwabMassachusetts General Hospital - Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Harvard University · USUniversity Medical Center Utrecht · NLBrigham and Women's Hospital · USUtrecht University · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeAn excessive amount of total hospitalization is caused by delays due to patients waiting to be placed in a rehabilitation facility or skilled nursing facility (RF/SNF). An accurate preoperative prediction of who would need a RF/SNF place after surgery could reduce costs and allow more efficient organizational planning. We aimed to develop a machine learning algorithm that predicts non-home discharge after elective surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis.

methodsWe used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to select patient that underwent elective surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis between 2009 and 2016. The primary outcome measure for the algorithm was non-home discharge. Four machine learning algorithms were developed to predict non-home discharge. Performance of the algorithms was measured with discrimination, calibration, and an overall performance score.

resultsWe included 28,600 patients with a median age of 67 (interquartile range 58-74). The non-home discharge rate was 18.2%. Our final model consisted of the following variables: age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, functional status, ASA class, level, fusion, preoperative hematocrit, and preoperative serum creatinine. The neural network was the best model based on discrimination (c-statistic = 0.751), calibration (slope = 0.933; intercept = 0.037), and overall performance (Brier score = 0.131).

conclusionsA machine learning algorithm is able to predict discharge placement after surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis with both good discrimination and calibration. Implementing this type of algorithm in clinical practice could avert risks associated with delayed discharge and lower costs. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

Indexed as

Machine LearningPatient DischargeAgedAlgorithmsElective Surgical ProceduresFemaleHumansLumbar VertebraeMaleMiddle AgedNetherlandsNeural Networks, ComputerPatient TransferPostoperative CarePredictive Value of TestsQuality ImprovementCalibrationDischarge placementMachine learningRehabilitationSpinal stenosis

Identifiers

PMID30941521
OpenAlexW2930198820

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.