ArticleTobacco control2020
Have e-cigarettes renormalised or displaced youth smoking? Results of a segmented regression analysis of repeated cross sectional survey data in England, Scotland and Wales.
Article in Tobacco control, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Electronic cigarettes and subsequent cigarette smoking in young people: A systematic review.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Systematic Review and Critical Analysis of Longitudinal Studies Assessing Effect of E-Cigarettes on Cigarette Initiation among Adolescent Never-Smokers.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Duration of the effectiveness of nicotine electronic cigarettes on smoking cessation and reduction: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2022Pooled it
- Trends in Social Norms Toward Cigarette Smoking and E-cigarette Use Among U.S. Youth Between 2015 and 2021.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025Article
- Trends in adolescent smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Australia: an interrupted time series analysis, 1999-2023.The Medical journal of Australia · 2025Article
- Trends in smoking prevalence before and after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa/New Zealand among 14-15-year-olds identifying as Māori, Pacific, European, or Asian: an interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 2003-2024.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Inhibition of Circadian Rhythm GeneEnvironment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2025Article
- Caution is needed when interpreting interrupted time series findings on vaping and smoking.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Caution is always needed when interpreting population-level vaping and smoking trends-authors' reply.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Risk of adolescent cigarette use in three UK birth cohorts before and after e-cigarettes.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Trends in smoking prevalence among 14-15-year-old adolescents before and after the emergence of vaping in New Zealand; an interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 1999-2023.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Electronic cigarettes and subsequent use of cigarettes in young people: An evidence and gap map.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2024Review
- The "Gateway" hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations.Harm reduction journal · 2024Review
- Cigarette smoking, opioid consumption, and pain intensity after major surgery: An observational study.Journal of the Chinese Medical Association : JCMA · 2023Observational
- E-Cigarette Flavors, Devices, and Brand Preferences Among Youths in Canada, England, and the United States: The Value and Challenges of Comparing International Survey Data.American journal of public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Alcohol and Cigarette Use among Adolescents and Young Adults in Austria from 2004-2020: Patterns of Change and Associations with Socioeconomic Variables.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Change over time in adolescent smoking, cannabis use and their association: findings from the School Health Research Network in Wales.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2021Article
- Changes in childhood experimentation with, and exposure to, tobacco and e-cigarettes and perceived smoking norms: a repeated cross-sectional study of 10-11 year olds' in Wales.BMC public health · 2021Article
- The Effect of Flow Rate on a Third-Generation Sub-Ohm Tank Electronic Nicotine Delivery System-Comparison of CORESTA Flow Rates to More Realistic Flow Rates.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo examine whether during a period of limited e-cigarette regulation and rapid growth in their use, smoking began to become renormalised among young people.
designInterrupted time-series analysis of repeated cross-sectional time-series data.
settingGreat Britain
participants248 324 young people aged approximately 13 and 15 years, from three national surveys during the years 1998-2015.
interventionUnregulated growth of e-cigarette use (following the year 2010, until 2015). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were prevalence of self-reported ever smoking and regular smoking. Secondary outcomes were attitudes towards smoking. Tertiary outcomes were ever use of cannabis and alcohol.
resultsIn final models, no significant change was detected in the pre-existing trend for ever smoking (OR 1.01, CI 0.99 to 1.03). There was a marginally significant slowing in the rate of decline for regular smoking (OR 1.04, CI 1.00 to 1.08), accompanied by a larger slowing in the rate of decline of cannabis use (OR 1.21, CI 1.18 to 1.25) and alcohol use (OR 1.17, CI 1.14 to 1.19). In all models and subgroup analyses for smoking attitudes, an increased rate of decline was observed after 2010 (OR 0.88, CI 0.86 to 0.90). Models were robust to sensitivity analyses.
conclusionsThere was a marginal slowing in the decline in regular smoking during the period following 2010, when e-cigarettes were emerging but relatively unregulated. However, these patterns were not unique to tobacco use and the decline in the acceptability of smoking behaviour among youth accelerated during this time. These analyses provide little evidence that renormalisation of youth smoking was occurring during a period of rapid growth and limited regulation of e-cigarettes from 2011 to 2015. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Research registry number: researchregistry4336.
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