Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30936377›Full record

Trial reportThe oncologist2019

Accuracy and Prognostic Significance of Oncologists' Estimates and Scenarios for Survival Time in Advanced Gastric Cancer.

Anuradha Vasista, Martin Stockler, Andrew Martin, Nick Pavlakis, Katrin Sjoquist, David Goldstein, Sanjeev Gill, Vikram Jain, Geoffrey Liu, George Kannourakis and 10 more

Abstract readClinical Trial, Phase IIMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled Trial
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in The oncologist, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Using three scenarios to explain life expectancy in advanced cancer: attitudes of patients, family members, and other healthcare professionals.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2022
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Observational
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Anuradha VasistaNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia anuradha.vasista@ctc.usyd.edu.au.
Martin StocklerNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Andrew MartinNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Nick PavlakisRoyal North Shore Hospital, New South Wales, Australia.
Katrin SjoquistNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
David GoldsteinPrince of Wales Hospital, New South Wales, Australia.
Sanjeev GillThe Alfred Hospital, Victoria, Australia.
Vikram JainICON Cancer Foundation, Queensland, Australia.
Geoffrey LiuUniversity Health Network, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
George KannourakisBallarat Oncology and Haematology Services, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia.
Yeul Hong KimKorea University Hospital, South Korea.
Louise NottRoyal Hobart Hospital, Tasmania, Australia.
Stephanie SnowQueen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Centre, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Matthew BurgeRoyal Brisbane and Womens Hospital, Queensland, Australia.
Dean HarrisChristchurch Hospital, Canterbury, New Zealand.
Derek JonkerOttawa Health Research Institute, Ottawa, Canada.
Yu Jo ChuaCanberra Hospital, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Richard EpsteinThe Kinghorn Cancer Centre, St Vincent's Hospital, New South Wales, Australia.
Antony BonaventuraNewcastle Private Hospital, New South Wales, Australia.
Belinda KielyNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWorst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival, based on simple multiples of an individual's expected survival time (EST), estimated by their oncologist, are a useful way of formulating and explaining prognosis. We aimed to determine the accuracy and prognostic significance of oncologists' estimates of EST, and the accuracy of the resulting scenarios for survival time, in advanced gastric cancer. MATERIALS AND

methodsSixty-six oncologists estimated the EST at baseline for each of the 152 participants they enrolled in the INTEGRATE trial. We hypothesized that oncologists' estimates of EST would be unbiased (∼50% would be longer or shorter than the observed survival time [OST]); imprecise (<33% within 0.67-1.33 times the OST); independently predictive of overall survival (OS); and accurate at deriving scenarios for survival time with approximately 10% of patients dying within a quarter of their EST (worst-case scenario), 50% living within half to double their EST (typical scenario), and 10% living three or more times their EST (best-case scenario).

resultsOncologists' estimates of EST were unbiased (45% were shorter than the OST, 55% were longer); imprecise (29% were within 0.67-1.33 times observed); moderately discriminative (Harrell's C-statistic 0.62,

conclusionOncologists' estimates of EST were unbiased, imprecise, moderately discriminative, and independently significant predictors of OS. Simple multiples of the EST accurately estimated worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival time in advanced gastric cancer. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Results of this study demonstrate that oncologists' estimates of expected survival time for their patients with advanced gastric cancer were unbiased, imprecise, moderately discriminative, and independently significant predictors of overall survival. Simple multiples of the expected survival time accurately estimated worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival time in advanced gastric cancer.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAntineoplastic AgentsFemaleHumansLife ExpectancyMaleMiddle AgedOncologistsPhenylurea CompoundsPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsPyridinesStomach NeoplasmsSurvival RateAntineoplastic AgentsPhenylurea CompoundsPyridinesregorafenibEstimating survival timesPrognosis in gastric cancer

Identifiers

PMID30936377
PMCPMC6853097

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.