Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

Background: Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception. Objective: To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa. Design: Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach). Data Sources: Published data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women). Target Population: 3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children. Time Horizon: 5 years. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: EFV, DTG, and WHO approach. Outcome Measures: Deaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Compared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths). Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Women's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater. Limitation: Uncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Although NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.