Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30929042›Full record

ArticleSocial psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology2019

Recent increases in depressive symptoms among US adolescents: trends from 1991 to 2018.

Katherine M Keyes, Dahsan Gary, Patrick M O'Malley, Ava Hamilton, John Schulenberg

Open access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 219 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
219citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
48.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

219 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 457 citations in OpenAlex.

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  18. Psychosocial trajectories in Germany across a decade of societal crises.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Depression trends in Europe: sociodemographic differences.European journal of public health · 2026
    Article

159 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Katherine M KeyesDepartment of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, Suite 724, New York, NY, 10032, USA. kmk2104@columbia.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5624-021X
Dahsan GaryDepartment of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, Suite 724, New York, NY, 10032, USA.
Patrick M O'MalleyInstitute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Ava HamiltonDepartment of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, Suite 724, New York, NY, 10032, USA.
John SchulenbergInstitute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Columbia University · USUniversity of Michigan · USUniversidad Mayor · CL

Funding

Monitoring the Future: Drug Use & Lifestyles of American Youth (Supp1: Nicotine Pouch and E-cigarette Use Among US Adolescents: National Estimates of Brand Use and Flavor Preferences)R01DA001411 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Richard A Miech · 1985 to 2026
$144.9M
As adolescent substance use declines, internalizing symptoms increase: identifying high-risk substance using groups and the role of social media, parental supervision, and unsupervised timeR01DA048853 · NIDA · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI KEYES, KATHERINE M. · 2019 to 2023
$2.0M
National Institute on Drug Abuse (US) R01001411NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA001411NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA048853
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMental health problems and mental health related mortality have increased among adolescents, particularly girls. These trends have implications for etiology and prevention and suggest new and emerging risk factors in need of attention. The present study estimated age, period, and cohort effects in depressive symptoms among US nationally representative samples of school attending adolescents from 1991 to 2018.

methodsData are drawn from 1991 to 2018 Monitoring the Future yearly cross-sectional surveys of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (N = 1,260,159). Depressive symptoms measured with four questions that had consistent wording and data collection procedures across all 28 years. Age-period-cohort effects estimated using the hierarchical age-period-cohort models.

resultsAmong girls, depressive symptoms decreased from 1991 to 2011, then reversed course, peaking in 2018; these increases reflected primarily period effects, which compared to the mean of all periods showed a gradual increase starting in 2012 and peaked in 2018 (estimate = 1.15, p < 0.01). Cohort effects were minimal, indicating that increases are observed across all age groups. Among boys, trends were similar although the extent of the increase is less marked compared to girls; there was a declining cohort effect among recently born cohorts, suggesting that increases in depressive symptoms among boys are slower for younger boys compared to older boys in recent years. Trends were generally similar by race/ethnicity and parental education, with a positive cohort effect for Hispanic girls born 1999-2004.

conclusionsDepressive symptoms are increasing among teens, especially among girls, consistent with increases in depression and suicide. Population variation in psychiatric disorder symptoms highlight the importance of current environmental determinants of psychiatric disorder risk, and provide evidence of emerging risk factors that may be shaping a new and concerning trend in adolescent mental health.

Indexed as

AdolescentCross-Sectional StudiesDepressionEthnicityFemaleHispanic or LatinoHumansMaleMental HealthRisk FactorsStudentsSuicideUnited StatesAdolescentAge–period–cohortDepressionSuicideTime trend

Identifiers

PMID30929042
PMCPMC7015269
OpenAlexW2926589548

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.