ArticleNature communications2019
Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios.
Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 122 papers.
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Who cites it
122 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Widespread thermophilization but weak link to climate warming in Europe's summit plant communities.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Global sea-level rise will create a new biological invasion front.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Precision management of the pernicious weed Eriochloa villosa (Thunb.) Kunth in maize: an anchor-point calibration framework integrating economic thresholds and species distribution models.Pest management science · 2026Article
- Global land-use change rivals climate change in driving projected diversity shifts of terrestrial vertebrates.iScience · 2026Article
- Projected Future Habitat Suitability of Five Endangered Terrestrial Mammals in South Korea Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
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- Nitrogen fixation rates increase with diazotroph richness in the global ocean.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Severe Climate-Driven Range Contraction ofEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- The forest of knowledge under global change.Nature · 2026Article
- Future climate scenarios reshape the suitability of major malaria vector taxa in South America.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
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- Climate Change Reduces Habitat Suitability of the Endemic Iranian Ground-Jay (Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Mapping the Potential Geographic Distribution of the Heartwater Disease Vector TickAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Global Warming and Dispersal Limitations Drive the Suitable Habitat Distribution ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Phylogenetics, Niche Evolution, and Distribution Dynamics ofEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- Predicting the Potential Distribution of Quesada gigas Under Current and Future Climate Conditions Using MaxEnt.Neotropical entomology · 2026Article
- Climate-driven changes in zoonotic risk of arenaviral hemorrhagic fevers in South America.Npj viruses · 2026Article
- Ecological Niche Modeling of the Narrow-Range Endangered EndemicPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
62 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, a thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties is still missing. Here, we modelled the global distribution of ~11,500 amphibian, bird and mammal species and project their climatic suitability into the time horizon 2050 and 2070, while varying the input data used. By this, we explore the uncertainties originating from selecting species distribution models (SDMs), dispersal strategies, global circulation models (GCMs), and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We demonstrate the overwhelming influence of SDMs and RCPs on future biodiversity projections, followed by dispersal strategies and GCMs. The relative importance of each component varies in space but also with the selected sensitivity metrics and with species' range size. Overall, this means using multiple SDMs, RCPs, dispersal assumptions and GCMs is a necessity in any biodiversity scenario assessment, to explicitly report associated uncertainties.
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