Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30926780›Full record

ArticleNature communications2019

Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis.

Oliver Ratmann, M Kate Grabowski, Matthew Hall, Tanya Golubchik, Chris Wymant, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, David Bonsall, Anne Hoppe, Andrew Leigh Brown, Tulio de Oliveira and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
46citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

46 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW72AZ, UK. oliver.ratmann@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8667-4118
M Kate GrabowskiDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205-2196, USA.
Matthew HallOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
Tanya GolubchikOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2765-9828
Chris WymantDepartment of Infectious Disease, Epidemiology School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W21PG, UK.
Lucie Abeler-DörnerOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3662-4192
David BonsallOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
Anne HoppeDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1304-1712
Andrew Leigh BrownSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK.
Tulio de OliveiraCollege of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa.
Astrid GallEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridgeshire, CB10 1SD, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6452-5816
Paul KellamDepartment of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, W12 0HS, UK.
Deenan PillayDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2431-244X
Joseph KagaayiRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, P.O.Box 49, Uganda.
Godfrey KigoziRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, P.O.Box 49, Uganda.
Thomas C QuinnDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205-2196, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0404-1315
Maria J WawerRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, P.O.Box 49, Uganda.
Oliver LaeyendeckerDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205-2196, USA.
David SerwaddaRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, P.O.Box 49, Uganda.
Ronald H GrayDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205-2196, USA.
Christophe FraserOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2399-9657
PANGEA Consortium and Rakai Health Sciences Program

Funding

Vaccine Response and Immunotherapeutics SWGP30AI094189 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Richard E. Chaisson · 2012 to 2026
$67.0M
International Center for Excellence in Research (ICER) in Uganda: Impact of ARVsZIAAI001040 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REYNOLDS, STEVEN · 2009 to 2025
$23.5M
International Studies of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)ZIAAI000361 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REDD, ANDREW · 2009 to 2025
$15.8M
ARV effects on HIV epidemiology &behaviors Rakai UgandaR01HD050180 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WAWER, MARIA J · 2005 to 2009
$7.8M
Methods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6M
Enhanced Provision of Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention, Rakai, UgandaU01AI100031 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2012 to 2014
$3.2M
CHWs, mHealth, and Combination HIV Prevention in a Hotspot: A Randomized TrialR01MH107275 · NIMH · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2015 to 2019
$2.7M
HIV Incidence, Transmission Dynamics and Combination HIV Prevention: Rakai UgandaR01AI110324 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2014 to 2016
$2.4M
The Problem With Male Sexual/Repro Health:Qualitative/Quantitative Study, UgandaR01HD070769 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WAWER, MARIA J · 2011 to 2013
$1.4M
Peer health workers: Impact on retention, care and secondary prevention of PLHIVK23MH086338 · NIMH · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2010 to 2014
$914k
Revealing women's hidden role as critical components of HIV transmission networks in Rakai, Uganda: an interdisciplinary approachK01AI125086 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRABOWSKI, MARY KATHRYN · 2016 to 2020
$638k
Medical Research Council MC_UU_00027/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI125086NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI110324NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI100031NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD050180NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070769NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH086338NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH107275
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To prevent new infections with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS recommends targeting interventions to populations that are at high risk of acquiring and passing on the virus. Yet it is often unclear who and where these 'source' populations are. Here we demonstrate how viral deep-sequencing can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks. We are able to deep-sequence virus from a large population-based sample of infected individuals in Rakai District, Uganda, reconstruct partial transmission networks, and infer the direction of transmission within them at an estimated error rate of 16.3% [8.8-28.3%]. With this error rate, deep-sequence phylogenetics cannot be used against individuals in legal contexts, but is sufficiently low for population-level inferences into the sources of epidemic spread. The technique presents new opportunities for characterizing source populations and for targeting of HIV-1 prevention interventions in Africa.

Indexed as

EpidemicsHigh-Throughput Nucleotide SequencingPhylogenyAdolescentAdultAfricaBase SequenceHIV-1HIV InfectionsHumansMiddle AgedYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID30926780
PMCPMC6441045

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.