Baseline nocturnal glucose change: A predictor of the treatment effect of bolus intensification in insulin-treated type 2 diabetes.

This post hoc analysis of an 18-week randomized trial explored the utility of calculating baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), postprandial glucose (PPG) increments and nocturnal glucose change in predicting efficacy and safety outcomes in response to bolus insulin intensification in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Analyses were conducted on 236 participants with T2D receiving metformin: 116 received fast-acting insulin aspart (faster aspart) basal-bolus therapy and 120 received basal-only insulin. Participants were grouped according to baseline HbA1c, PPG increments and nocturnal glucose change variables; analyses were performed on the end-of-trial treatment differences between "high" and "low" baseline values. The change from baseline in end-of-trial mean HbA1c and mean PPG increments was in favour of faster aspart across all subgroups. Significantly greater treatment differences were observed in participants with high (vs. low) baseline nocturnal glucose change and PPG increments. For baseline HbA1c, significantly greater treatment differences were observed for change in end-of-trial PPG increments, but not end-of-trial HbA1c. In conclusion, both nocturnal glucose change and PPG increments may be more useful than HbA1c for identifying subgroups of people with T2D who would most benefit from bolus intensification.