ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2019
Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 529 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
529 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Viral and host determinants of arboviral disease severity in African populations: A systematic review with meta-analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Pakistan: a decadal synthesis of biogeographical distribution, ecological determinants, and vectorial implications (2015-2025).Die Naturwissenschaften · 2026Pooled it
- Meta-analysis finds large variation but no general patterns in the relationship between climate and parasitism in terrestrial animals.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Pooled it
- Understanding the Effect of a Changing Climate on the Re-Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vulnerable Small Island Nations: A Systematic Review.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Pooled it
- Assessing chikungunya's economic burden and impact on health-related quality of life: Two systematic literature reviews.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Randomized Trial of Targeted Indoor Spraying to Prevent Aedes-Borne Diseases.The New England journal of medicine · 2025Trial
- From vaccine availability to effective deployment: Closing the arboviral vaccine access gap.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- First laboratory-confirmed fatal dengue virus infection and its implications for national arboviral surveillance in Liberia.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Environmental and epidemiological drivers of dengue forecasting across heterogeneous transmission settings in Brazil and Panama.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue.Science advances · 2026Review
- Differentiated mosquito adaptive strategies underlie regional dominance of three ECSA sub-lineages in chikungunya virus.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Climate-driven host ecology as a framework for zoonotic disease risk: Understanding transferability across arenavirus systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Evolutionary Dynamics-AwareACS omega · 2026Article
- Evaluation of the NovaplexInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2026Article
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- Endothelial Collapse as a Convergent Immunovascular Phenotype in Sepsis and Severe Arboviral Disease: The SIMVAC Model.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Virulent Parasites Emerge in Hosts With Rising Temperatures.Global change biology · 2026Article
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- Detection and Surveillance of InvasiveInsects · 2026Review
469 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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