Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30919880›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2020

Blood Transcriptomic Stratification of Short-term Risk in Contacts of Tuberculosis.

Jennifer Roe, Cristina Venturini, Rishi K Gupta, Celine Gurry, Benjamin M Chain, Yuxin Sun, Jo Southern, Charlotte Jackson, Marc C Lipman, Robert F Miller and 3 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
51citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
6.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

51 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 85 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Biomarker tests of progression from tuberculosis infection to disease: a systematic review.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
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  13. Inflammatory Biomarkers of Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Tuberculosis.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Jennifer RoeDivision of Infection & Immunity, University College London.
Cristina VenturiniDivision of Infection & Immunity, University College London.
Rishi K GuptaInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Celine GurryDivision of Infection & Immunity, University College London.
Benjamin M ChainDivision of Infection & Immunity, University College London.
Yuxin SunDepartment of Computer Science, University College London.
Jo SouthernInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Charlotte JacksonInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Marc C LipmanUniversity College London Respiratory Medicine, University College London.
Robert F MillerInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Adrian R MartineauBlizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London.
Ibrahim AbubakarInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Mahdad NoursadeghiDivision of Infection & Immunity, University College London.
University College London · GBInstitute of Infection and Immunity · CANational Health Service · GBNational Institute for Health Research · GBQueen Mary University of London · GB

Funding

Department of Health 08/68/01Department of Health DRF-2018-11-ST2-004Department of Health SRF-2011-04-001Medical Research Council MR/L001756/1Wellcome Trust 207511Wellcome Trust 207511/Z/17/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe highest risk of tuberculosis arises in the first few months after exposure. We reasoned that this risk reflects incipient disease among tuberculosis contacts. Blood transcriptional biomarkers of tuberculosis may predate clinical diagnosis, suggesting they offer improved sensitivity to detect subclinical incipient disease. Therefore, we sought to test the hypothesis that refined blood transcriptional biomarkers of active tuberculosis will improve stratification of short-term disease risk in tuberculosis contacts.

methodsWe combined analysis of previously published blood transcriptomic data with new data from a prospective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative UK cohort of 333 tuberculosis contacts. We used stability selection as an alternative computational approach to identify an optimal signature for short-term risk of active tuberculosis and evaluated its predictive value in independent cohorts.

resultsIn a previously published HIV-negative South African case-control study of patients with asymptomatic Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, a novel 3-gene transcriptional signature comprising BATF2, GBP5, and SCARF1 achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 23% for progression to active tuberculosis within 90 days. In a new UK cohort of 333 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts with a median follow-up of 346 days, this signature achieved a PPV of 50% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7-84.3) and negative predictive value of 99.3% (95% CI, 97.5-99.9). By comparison, peripheral blood interferon gamma release assays in the same cohort achieved a PPV of 5.6% (95% CI, 2.1-11.8).

conclusionsThis blood transcriptional signature provides unprecedented opportunities to target therapy among tuberculosis contacts with greatest risk of incident disease.

Indexed as

Mycobacterium tuberculosisTuberculosisCase-Control StudiesHumansInterferon-gamma Release TestsProspective StudiesTranscriptomebiomarkerblood transcriptomediagnosistuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID30919880
PMCPMC7617764
OpenAlexW2925548359

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.